Weather Records Against Chance: Australia

In the 2020s, record highs ran at 1.43 times the number expected by chance in Australia (1951-1980: 1.03) and record lows at 0.67 times (1951-1980: 0.76).

Data as of 2026-10-17. Last revised 17 October 2026 (2026-10-17).

Key Facts

In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 42,141 record highs of daily temperature were observed in Australia against 29,474 expected by chance, 1.43 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 1.03.
In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 19,636 record lows of daily temperature were observed in Australia against 29,474 expected by chance, 0.67 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 0.76.
By type in the 2020s in Australia, observed over expected was 1.42 for record highs of the daily maximum, 0.65 for record lows of the daily maximum, 1.44 for record highs of the daily minimum, 0.68 for record lows of the daily minimum.
In 2026 (to 2026-10-17), record highs ran at 1.72 times the expected number in Australia and record lows at 0.48 times.
Expected counts assume a stable climate: the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k.
Readings are whole tenths of a degree and ties are not records, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. This page compares with the 1951-1980 level and not with 1.

How to Read This Page

In a stable climate, the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k. Adding that chance up over every station, day and year gives the number of daily records expected without any change. The site records a station's records from its 31st year of data, so a station-year counts from there.

Readings are whole tenths of a degree, and a tie is not a record, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. For that reason the charts compare observed over expected with the 1951-1980 level (1.03 for record highs and 0.76 for record lows in this data), drawn as a dashed line, and not with 1.

Record highs and record lows combine the daily maximum and the daily minimum temperature. The level for each is the average of the two levels in the data. A value above the dashed line means more records than in 1951-1980; below it means fewer. The numbers show what was observed and how it compares. They do not say why.

Observed Over Expected by Year

Highs and lows

Record highs

Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in Australia, for each year from 1915 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 1.03.

Observed over expected record highs by year, Australia
Year	record highs observed over expected
1915	1.16
1916	0.82
1917	0.58
1918	0.68
1919	1.61
1920	0.71
1921	1.00
1922	1.01
1923	1.04
1924	0.67
1925	0.58
1926	1.52
1927	0.76
1928	1.32
1929	0.68
1930	0.68
1931	0.97
1932	0.77
1933	0.94
1934	0.93
1935	0.85
1936	0.92
1937	0.89
1938	1.16
1939	0.88
1940	1.14
1941	0.83
1942	1.24
1943	0.70
1944	1.00
1945	0.98
1946	0.87
1947	1.00
1948	0.92
1949	0.94
1950	0.88
1951	0.83
1952	0.94
1953	0.75
1954	0.70
1955	0.72
1956	0.60
1957	1.14
1958	1.29
1959	1.25
1960	0.65
1961	1.22
1962	1.17
1963	0.86
1964	0.88
1965	1.11
1966	0.70
1967	0.90
1968	1.10
1969	1.19
1970	0.97
1971	0.83
1972	1.16
1973	1.56
1974	0.67
1975	1.21
1976	0.92
1977	1.16
1978	1.06
1979	1.13
1980	1.56
1981	1.33
1982	1.14
1983	1.50
1984	0.62
1985	1.29
1986	0.91
1987	1.30
1988	1.65
1989	0.78
1990	1.27
1991	1.37
1992	0.73
1993	1.00
1994	1.39
1995	1.20
1996	1.20
1997	1.08
1998	1.78
1999	1.07
2000	0.98
2001	1.16
2002	1.58
2003	1.30
2004	1.36
2005	1.71
2006	1.30
2007	1.44
2008	0.99
2009	1.91
2010	1.28
2011	0.93
2012	1.03
2013	1.89
2014	1.65
2015	1.59
2016	2.05
2017	1.72
2018	1.68
2019	2.29
2020	1.59
2021	1.00
2022	0.99
2023	1.40
2024	1.80
2025	1.48
2026	1.72

Record lows

Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in Australia, for each year from 1915 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 0.76.

Observed over expected record lows by year, Australia
Year	record lows observed over expected
1915	0.83
1916	1.14
1917	1.15
1918	0.84
1919	0.56
1920	0.98
1921	0.62
1922	0.69
1923	0.69
1924	0.98
1925	1.01
1926	0.70
1927	1.00
1928	0.63
1929	1.09
1930	0.60
1931	0.98
1932	0.77
1933	0.83
1934	1.01
1935	0.94
1936	0.58
1937	0.63
1938	0.72
1939	0.93
1940	0.83
1941	0.91
1942	0.68
1943	0.98
1944	0.95
1945	0.83
1946	1.10
1947	0.79
1948	0.96
1949	1.03
1950	0.84
1951	0.92
1952	0.97
1953	0.99
1954	0.80
1955	0.99
1956	1.12
1957	0.77
1958	0.68
1959	0.57
1960	1.10
1961	0.58
1962	0.56
1963	0.47
1964	1.05
1965	0.61
1966	0.77
1967	0.52
1968	1.19
1969	0.70
1970	0.84
1971	0.82
1972	0.59
1973	0.56
1974	0.88
1975	0.78
1976	0.87
1977	0.67
1978	0.86
1979	0.52
1980	0.49
1981	0.70
1982	0.82
1983	0.67
1984	0.86
1985	0.59
1986	0.80
1987	0.82
1988	0.55
1989	0.80
1990	0.84
1991	0.55
1992	0.89
1993	0.71
1994	1.00
1995	1.11
1996	0.98
1997	0.74
1998	0.78
1999	0.79
2000	0.92
2001	0.70
2002	0.64
2003	0.68
2004	0.74
2005	0.71
2006	0.99
2007	0.65
2008	0.97
2009	0.59
2010	0.84
2011	0.89
2012	0.91
2013	0.52
2014	0.53
2015	0.70
2016	0.66
2017	0.68
2018	0.62
2019	0.69
2020	0.73
2021	0.81
2022	0.81
2023	0.72
2024	0.48
2025	0.66
2026	0.48

The charts start in 1915. 30 earlier years are left out because too few records were expected from the few stations with a long enough record. The data download has every year.

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Counts

Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in Australia for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give.

Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, Australia
Year	Record highs observed	Record highs expected	Record lows observed	Record lows expected
1915	278	240	199	240
1916	202	246	281	246
1917	175	300	345	300
1918	206	304	254	304
1919	560	348	196	348
1920	281	398	390	398
1921	431	432	266	432
1922	510	506	348	506
1923	585	562	386	562
1924	416	621	609	621
1925	344	598	605	598
1926	931	613	430	613
1927	491	642	639	642
1928	874	663	418	663
1929	436	645	702	645
1930	445	653	389	653
1931	661	684	669	684
1932	533	695	534	695
1933	637	677	565	677
1934	623	671	675	671
1935	558	656	620	656
1936	591	642	375	642
1937	837	942	590	942
1938	1,139	983	705	983
1939	839	949	886	949
1940	1,136	996	829	996
1941	801	970	881	970
1942	1,158	935	636	935
1943	688	986	970	986
1944	995	992	946	992
1945	950	966	804	966
1946	805	926	1,014	926
1947	927	929	734	929
1948	823	895	859	895
1949	807	855	883	855
1950	721	820	690	820
1951	671	808	740	808
1952	717	764	738	764
1953	551	739	730	739
1954	477	682	546	682
1955	504	699	693	699
1956	407	682	764	682
1957	733	643	495	643
1958	826	639	433	639
1959	777	622	355	622
1960	416	639	702	639
1961	766	627	361	627
1962	761	649	363	649
1963	549	639	301	639
1964	590	671	702	671
1965	715	645	396	645
1966	433	618	477	618
1967	544	603	315	603
1968	643	583	693	583
1969	876	735	517	735
1970	717	736	620	736
1971	702	849	693	849
1972	1,142	983	577	983
1973	1,580	1,013	569	1,013
1974	709	1,054	931	1,054
1975	1,180	979	767	979
1976	876	956	830	956
1977	1,159	1,003	674	1,003
1978	1,186	1,114	954	1,114
1979	1,270	1,123	588	1,123
1980	1,809	1,160	564	1,160
1981	1,631	1,222	852	1,222
1982	1,404	1,235	1,018	1,235
1983	1,796	1,201	800	1,201
1984	731	1,180	1,018	1,180
1985	1,483	1,152	678	1,152
1986	1,094	1,200	963	1,200
1987	4,168	3,194	2,618	3,194
1988	5,723	3,466	1,906	3,466
1989	2,708	3,461	2,754	3,461
1990	4,369	3,429	2,875	3,429
1991	4,597	3,362	1,863	3,362
1992	2,774	3,796	3,361	3,796
1993	3,811	3,793	2,687	3,793
1994	5,058	3,641	3,637	3,641
1995	5,422	4,528	5,022	4,528
1996	5,890	4,917	4,814	4,917
1997	5,585	5,167	3,808	5,167
1998	9,235	5,190	4,022	5,190
1999	5,767	5,398	4,247	5,398
2000	5,472	5,564	5,124	5,564
2001	6,390	5,523	3,855	5,523
2002	8,694	5,490	3,536	5,490
2003	7,068	5,455	3,727	5,455
2004	7,318	5,376	3,976	5,376
2005	8,995	5,251	3,753	5,251
2006	6,691	5,134	5,084	5,134
2007	7,164	4,987	3,265	4,987
2008	4,858	4,886	4,717	4,886
2009	9,025	4,729	2,769	4,729
2010	6,047	4,722	3,966	4,722
2011	4,263	4,583	4,066	4,583
2012	4,483	4,350	3,976	4,350
2013	7,897	4,183	2,186	4,183
2014	6,803	4,132	2,176	4,132
2015	6,058	3,800	2,663	3,800
2016	7,787	3,791	2,493	3,791
2017	6,537	3,802	2,578	3,802
2018	6,170	3,681	2,276	3,681
2019	8,461	3,689	2,561	3,689
2020	5,767	3,621	2,632	3,621
2021	4,053	4,047	3,271	4,047
2022	4,057	4,108	3,323	4,108
2023	6,068	4,343	3,145	4,343
2024	8,501	4,715	2,262	4,715
2025	7,170	4,838	3,193	4,838
2026	6,525	3,803	1,810	3,803

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Decade values in Australia: 1880s 1.10, 1890s 1.22, 1900s 1.01, 1910s 0.97, 1920s 0.93, 1930s 0.91, 1940s 0.96, 1950s 0.90, 1960s 0.98, 1970s 1.07, 1980s 1.22, 1990s 1.21, 2000s 1.37, 2010s 1.58, 2020s 1.43. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 1.03.

Observed over expected record highs by decade, Australia
Decade	record highs observed over expected
1880s	1.10
1890s	1.22
1900s	1.01
1910s	0.97
1920s	0.93
1930s	0.91
1940s	0.96
1950s	0.90
1960s	0.98
1970s	1.07
1980s	1.22
1990s	1.21
2000s	1.37
2010s	1.58
2020s	1.43

Record lows

Decade values in Australia: 1880s 1.10, 1890s 0.75, 1900s 1.12, 1910s 0.87, 1920s 0.84, 1930s 0.80, 1940s 0.91, 1950s 0.87, 1960s 0.75, 1970s 0.73, 1980s 0.71, 1990s 0.84, 2000s 0.76, 2010s 0.71, 2020s 0.67. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 0.76.

Observed over expected record lows by decade, Australia
Decade	record lows observed over expected
1880s	1.10
1890s	0.75
1900s	1.12
1910s	0.87
1920s	0.84
1930s	0.80
1940s	0.91
1950s	0.87
1960s	0.75
1970s	0.73
1980s	0.71
1990s	0.84
2000s	0.76
2010s	0.71
2020s	0.67

Observed and expected daily temperature records by decade, Australia
Decade	Highs observed	Highs expected	Highs observed over expected	Lows observed	Lows expected	Lows observed over expected
1880s	148	134	1.10	148	134	1.10
1890s	902	742	1.22	554	742	0.75
1900s	1,384	1,374	1.01	1,546	1,374	1.12
1910s	2,364	2,426	0.97	2,111	2,426	0.87
1920s	5,299	5,679	0.93	4,793	5,679	0.84
1930s	6,863	7,552	0.91	6,008	7,552	0.80
1940s	9,090	9,449	0.96	8,556	9,449	0.91
1950s	6,384	7,099	0.90	6,184	7,099	0.87
1960s	6,293	6,408	0.98	4,827	6,408	0.75
1970s	10,521	9,809	1.07	7,203	9,809	0.73
1980s	22,547	18,472	1.22	13,171	18,472	0.71
1990s	52,508	43,219	1.21	36,336	43,219	0.84
2000s	71,675	52,394	1.37	39,806	52,394	0.76
2010s	64,506	40,731	1.58	28,941	40,731	0.71
2020s	42,141	29,474	1.43	19,636	29,474	0.67

By Record Type, 2020s

Against the 1951-1980 level

Observed and expected records by type in the 2020s, Australia, with the 1951-1980 level
Record type	Observed	Expected	Observed over expected	1951-1980 level
Record high maximum temperature	21,111	14,898	1.42	0.97
Record low maximum temperature	9,685	14,898	0.65	0.82
Record high minimum temperature	21,030	14,576	1.44	1.08
Record low minimum temperature	9,951	14,576	0.68	0.71

The 2020s are not over: this decade runs to 2026, up to 2026-10-17.

Download the Data

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily). Records are computed by World Extreme Weather Monitor and are not official NOAA products. (US Government open data (NOAA NCEI)) Data as of 2026-10-17. Observed records are computed by this site from daily maximum and minimum temperature. Expected counts assume a stable climate.

Weather Records Against Chance: Australia

Key Facts

How to Read This Page

Observed Over Expected by Year

Record highs

Record lows

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Record lows

By Record Type, 2020s

Download the Data

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