Weather Records Against Chance

In the 2020s, record highs ran at 1.79 times the number expected by chance worldwide (1951-1980: 0.81) and record lows at 0.57 times (1951-1980: 0.88).

Data as of 2026-10-14. Last revised 14 October 2026 (2026-10-14).

Key Facts

In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-14), 952,244 record highs of daily temperature were observed worldwide against 533,209 expected by chance, 1.79 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 0.81.
In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-14), 302,364 record lows of daily temperature were observed worldwide against 533,209 expected by chance, 0.57 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 0.88.
By type in the 2020s worldwide, observed over expected was 1.68 for record highs of the daily maximum, 0.63 for record lows of the daily maximum, 1.90 for record highs of the daily minimum, 0.50 for record lows of the daily minimum.
In 2026 (to 2026-10-14), record highs ran at 2.55 times the expected number worldwide and record lows at 0.49 times.
Expected counts assume a stable climate: the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k.
Readings are whole tenths of a degree and ties are not records, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. This page compares with the 1951-1980 level and not with 1.

How to Read This Page

In a stable climate, the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k. Adding that chance up over every station, day and year gives the number of daily records expected without any change. The site records a station's records from its 31st year of data, so a station-year counts from there.

Readings are whole tenths of a degree, and a tie is not a record, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. For that reason the charts compare observed over expected with the 1951-1980 level (0.81 for record highs and 0.88 for record lows in this data), drawn as a dashed line, and not with 1.

Record highs and record lows combine the daily maximum and the daily minimum temperature. The level for each is the average of the two levels in the data. A value above the dashed line means more records than in 1951-1980; below it means fewer. The numbers show what was observed and how it compares. They do not say why.

Observed Over Expected by Year

Highs and lows

Record highs

Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance worldwide, for each year from 1894 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 0.81.

Observed over expected record highs by year, World
Year	record highs observed over expected
1894	0.86
1895	1.33
1896	1.12
1897	1.27
1898	1.67
1899	1.36
1900	1.29
1901	1.17
1902	0.91
1903	0.98
1904	0.59
1905	0.71
1906	1.08
1907	0.71
1908	0.99
1909	0.83
1910	0.98
1911	1.24
1912	0.80
1913	1.30
1914	1.26
1915	0.85
1916	0.98
1917	0.70
1918	1.03
1919	0.98
1920	1.05
1921	1.44
1922	0.89
1923	0.84
1924	0.77
1925	1.21
1926	0.81
1927	1.17
1928	0.98
1929	0.84
1930	1.47
1931	1.50
1932	1.06
1933	1.18
1934	1.53
1935	0.81
1936	1.48
1937	0.83
1938	1.13
1939	1.22
1940	0.78
1941	0.97
1942	0.78
1943	0.87
1944	0.83
1945	0.87
1946	0.96
1947	1.03
1948	0.86
1949	0.96
1950	0.91
1951	0.78
1952	0.85
1953	1.13
1954	1.07
1955	0.84
1956	0.81
1957	0.75
1958	0.80
1959	0.76
1960	0.65
1961	0.84
1962	0.84
1963	0.97
1964	0.71
1965	0.66
1966	0.76
1967	0.80
1968	0.78
1969	0.63
1970	0.70
1971	0.76
1972	0.80
1973	0.82
1974	0.82
1975	0.84
1976	0.73
1977	1.05
1978	0.67
1979	0.81
1980	1.00
1981	1.07
1982	0.86
1983	1.08
1984	0.85
1985	0.79
1986	0.99
1987	1.13
1988	1.14
1989	1.26
1990	1.50
1991	1.16
1992	0.91
1993	0.80
1994	1.08
1995	1.27
1996	1.01
1997	1.10
1998	1.67
1999	1.17
2000	1.28
2001	1.18
2002	1.44
2003	1.35
2004	1.07
2005	1.31
2006	1.44
2007	1.45
2008	1.05
2009	1.12
2010	1.32
2011	1.27
2012	1.49
2013	1.20
2014	1.25
2015	1.87
2016	1.61
2017	1.55
2018	1.46
2019	1.31
2020	1.65
2021	1.50
2022	1.51
2023	1.65
2024	1.91
2025	1.99
2026	2.55

Record lows

Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance worldwide, for each year from 1894 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 0.88.

Observed over expected record lows by year, World
Year	record lows observed over expected
1894	0.62
1895	0.92
1896	0.66
1897	0.71
1898	0.50
1899	0.81
1900	0.71
1901	0.68
1902	0.86
1903	0.87
1904	0.86
1905	0.73
1906	0.64
1907	0.94
1908	0.75
1909	0.83
1910	0.54
1911	0.66
1912	1.08
1913	0.71
1914	0.68
1915	0.85
1916	0.79
1917	1.15
1918	0.84
1919	0.98
1920	0.76
1921	0.55
1922	0.64
1923	0.85
1924	1.10
1925	0.92
1926	0.88
1927	0.81
1928	0.76
1929	1.05
1930	0.90
1931	0.55
1932	0.82
1933	0.72
1934	0.65
1935	0.86
1936	1.06
1937	0.76
1938	0.47
1939	0.51
1940	1.05
1941	0.50
1942	0.80
1943	0.85
1944	0.57
1945	0.79
1946	0.57
1947	0.75
1948	0.78
1949	0.71
1950	1.18
1951	1.07
1952	0.78
1953	0.56
1954	0.71
1955	0.98
1956	0.87
1957	0.69
1958	0.72
1959	0.73
1960	0.93
1961	0.72
1962	0.97
1963	0.91
1964	1.00
1965	1.07
1966	0.92
1967	0.94
1968	0.97
1969	0.89
1970	0.84
1971	0.94
1972	1.13
1973	0.71
1974	0.90
1975	0.81
1976	1.10
1977	0.83
1978	0.92
1979	1.00
1980	0.74
1981	0.70
1982	0.86
1983	0.98
1984	0.87
1985	1.13
1986	0.82
1987	0.89
1988	0.67
1989	1.06
1990	0.61
1991	0.75
1992	0.90
1993	0.94
1994	0.60
1995	0.68
1996	0.97
1997	0.84
1998	0.61
1999	0.67
2000	0.73
2001	0.58
2002	0.76
2003	0.63
2004	0.67
2005	0.54
2006	0.66
2007	0.61
2008	0.72
2009	0.74
2010	0.83
2011	0.68
2012	0.58
2013	0.85
2014	0.87
2015	0.58
2016	0.40
2017	0.54
2018	0.69
2019	0.78
2020	0.64
2021	0.62
2022	0.68
2023	0.58
2024	0.41
2025	0.53
2026	0.49

The charts start in 1894. 101 earlier years are left out because too few records were expected from the few stations with a long enough record. The data download has every year.

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Counts

Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance worldwide for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give.

Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, World
Year	Record highs observed	Record highs expected	Record lows observed	Record lows expected
1894	230	266	164	266
1895	365	275	254	275
1896	303	270	179	270
1897	348	275	196	275
1898	471	283	141	283
1899	472	348	280	348
1900	436	339	241	339
1901	583	498	336	498
1902	630	691	591	691
1903	963	980	850	980
1904	770	1,296	1,112	1,296
1905	990	1,402	1,029	1,402
1906	1,743	1,618	1,038	1,618
1907	1,164	1,645	1,554	1,645
1908	1,650	1,663	1,245	1,663
1909	1,600	1,932	1,596	1,932
1910	2,019	2,051	1,098	2,051
1911	2,858	2,306	1,513	2,306
1912	2,226	2,797	3,018	2,797
1913	3,695	2,848	2,012	2,848
1914	3,753	2,974	2,032	2,974
1915	2,743	3,227	2,747	3,227
1916	3,172	3,252	2,577	3,252
1917	2,398	3,403	3,908	3,403
1918	3,604	3,483	2,933	3,483
1919	3,744	3,824	3,743	3,824
1920	4,556	4,334	3,292	4,334
1921	6,906	4,806	2,659	4,806
1922	5,044	5,697	3,639	5,697
1923	10,488	12,500	10,647	12,500
1924	11,851	15,340	16,886	15,340
1925	20,472	16,961	15,652	16,961
1926	16,048	19,697	17,343	19,697
1927	25,192	21,608	17,578	21,608
1928	22,418	22,877	17,346	22,877
1929	20,326	24,161	25,282	24,161
1930	38,270	25,998	23,457	25,998
1931	42,194	28,041	15,302	28,041
1932	30,988	29,344	24,190	29,344
1933	35,698	30,180	21,699	30,180
1934	47,927	31,354	20,451	31,354
1935	26,868	33,136	28,569	33,136
1936	50,577	34,245	36,188	34,245
1937	29,743	35,749	27,276	35,749
1938	41,592	36,702	17,152	36,702
1939	45,464	37,320	19,154	37,320
1940	29,986	38,678	40,660	38,678
1941	37,804	38,959	19,668	38,959
1942	30,814	39,625	31,863	39,625
1943	35,363	40,466	34,403	40,466
1944	34,861	41,856	23,918	41,856
1945	37,306	42,822	33,643	42,822
1946	41,787	43,712	24,926	43,712
1947	45,018	43,881	32,847	43,881
1948	38,310	44,332	34,695	44,332
1949	43,025	44,701	31,794	44,701
1950	41,270	45,494	53,714	45,494
1951	35,634	45,765	48,957	45,765
1952	39,761	46,535	36,113	46,535
1953	53,396	47,141	26,232	47,141
1954	50,450	47,227	33,707	47,227
1955	40,368	47,773	46,885	47,773
1956	39,564	48,704	42,393	48,704
1957	36,329	48,679	33,544	48,679
1958	38,702	48,485	35,040	48,485
1959	36,960	48,802	35,638	48,802
1960	32,583	49,984	46,358	49,984
1961	42,114	50,240	36,394	50,240
1962	42,611	50,801	49,176	50,801
1963	48,884	50,403	45,650	50,403
1964	35,648	50,534	50,409	50,534
1965	33,282	50,652	53,957	50,652
1966	40,456	53,255	49,057	53,255
1967	43,972	55,020	51,923	55,020
1968	43,717	56,398	54,515	56,398
1969	36,507	58,288	51,664	58,288
1970	41,804	59,786	50,446	59,786
1971	47,552	62,177	58,452	62,177
1972	50,962	63,845	71,897	63,845
1973	52,294	63,819	45,108	63,819
1974	53,285	65,268	58,950	65,268
1975	56,166	66,969	53,975	66,969
1976	50,192	68,517	75,549	68,517
1977	73,284	69,721	57,714	69,721
1978	49,016	73,431	67,541	73,431
1979	62,316	76,589	76,324	76,589
1980	78,800	78,695	58,074	78,695
1981	92,898	87,157	61,106	87,157
1982	76,323	88,638	75,787	88,638
1983	98,058	91,019	89,223	91,019
1984	72,622	85,826	74,357	85,826
1985	67,772	85,962	96,750	85,962
1986	85,932	86,484	71,139	86,484
1987	101,528	90,104	80,000	90,104
1988	103,866	91,446	61,009	91,446
1989	118,105	93,787	99,121	93,787
1990	140,445	93,847	57,580	93,847
1991	115,050	99,205	74,425	99,205
1992	93,633	102,625	91,916	102,625
1993	82,773	103,753	97,168	103,753
1994	112,887	104,711	63,240	104,711
1995	134,826	106,082	72,606	106,082
1996	108,213	107,237	104,250	107,237
1997	117,771	107,219	89,982	107,219
1998	177,708	106,419	64,988	106,419
1999	122,822	104,668	70,045	104,668
2000	135,062	105,140	76,976	105,140
2001	121,755	103,601	60,028	103,601
2002	148,712	103,457	78,603	103,457
2003	140,872	104,401	65,622	104,401
2004	110,769	103,880	69,315	103,880
2005	132,717	101,274	54,861	101,274
2006	147,272	102,367	67,369	102,367
2007	145,583	100,711	61,748	100,711
2008	104,727	99,816	72,221	99,816
2009	110,326	98,700	73,194	98,700
2010	129,034	97,835	81,174	97,835
2011	123,121	96,737	65,775	96,737
2012	133,311	89,584	51,832	89,584
2013	89,644	74,487	62,976	74,487
2014	91,701	73,317	63,632	73,317
2015	138,422	74,163	42,732	74,163
2016	120,185	74,851	29,656	74,851
2017	116,913	75,632	40,803	75,632
2018	109,816	75,178	52,026	75,178
2019	99,590	75,849	59,393	75,849
2020	129,332	78,510	49,900	78,510
2021	120,392	80,260	50,031	80,260
2022	121,999	81,001	55,024	81,001
2023	133,421	80,855	46,881	80,855
2024	153,940	80,789	33,227	80,789
2025	153,690	77,203	40,599	77,203
2026	139,470	54,592	26,702	54,592

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Decade values worldwide: 1790s 1.40, 1800s 0.78, 1810s 0.57, 1820s 0.72, 1830s 0.80, 1840s 1.30, 1850s 0.87, 1860s 1.23, 1870s 0.98, 1880s 0.92, 1890s 1.16, 1900s 0.87, 1910s 1.00, 1920s 0.97, 1930s 1.21, 1940s 0.89, 1950s 0.87, 1960s 0.76, 1970s 0.80, 1980s 1.02, 1990s 1.16, 2000s 1.27, 2010s 1.43, 2020s 1.79. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 0.81.

Observed over expected record highs by decade, World
Decade	record highs observed over expected
1790s	1.40
1800s	0.78
1810s	0.57
1820s	0.72
1830s	0.80
1840s	1.30
1850s	0.87
1860s	1.23
1870s	0.98
1880s	0.92
1890s	1.16
1900s	0.87
1910s	1.00
1920s	0.97
1930s	1.21
1940s	0.89
1950s	0.87
1960s	0.76
1970s	0.80
1980s	1.02
1990s	1.16
2000s	1.27
2010s	1.43
2020s	1.79

Record lows

Decade values worldwide: 1790s 1.06, 1800s 0.93, 1810s 1.06, 1820s 0.76, 1830s 1.95, 1840s 1.24, 1850s 1.45, 1860s 1.05, 1870s 1.00, 1880s 1.15, 1890s 0.78, 1900s 0.80, 1910s 0.85, 1920s 0.88, 1930s 0.72, 1940s 0.74, 1950s 0.83, 1960s 0.93, 1970s 0.92, 1980s 0.87, 1990s 0.76, 2000s 0.66, 2010s 0.68, 2020s 0.57. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 0.88.

Observed over expected record lows by decade, World
Decade	record lows observed over expected
1790s	1.06
1800s	0.93
1810s	1.06
1820s	0.76
1830s	1.95
1840s	1.24
1850s	1.45
1860s	1.05
1870s	1.00
1880s	1.15
1890s	0.78
1900s	0.80
1910s	0.85
1920s	0.88
1930s	0.72
1940s	0.74
1950s	0.83
1960s	0.93
1970s	0.92
1980s	0.87
1990s	0.76
2000s	0.66
2010s	0.68
2020s	0.57

Observed and expected daily temperature records by decade, World
Decade	Highs observed	Highs expected	Highs observed over expected	Lows observed	Lows expected	Lows observed over expected
1790s	208	148	1.40	157	148	1.06
1800s	219	280	0.78	260	280	0.93
1810s	182	318	0.57	339	318	1.06
1820s	188	261	0.72	197	261	0.76
1830s	178	221	0.80	431	221	1.95
1840s	477	367	1.30	456	367	1.24
1850s	494	568	0.87	823	568	1.45
1860s	854	693	1.23	725	693	1.05
1870s	1,032	1,058	0.98	1,058	1,058	1.00
1880s	1,317	1,438	0.92	1,659	1,438	1.15
1890s	2,917	2,514	1.16	1,951	2,514	0.78
1900s	10,529	12,063	0.87	9,592	12,063	0.80
1910s	30,212	30,165	1.00	25,581	30,165	0.85
1920s	143,301	147,980	0.97	130,324	147,980	0.88
1930s	389,321	322,068	1.21	233,438	322,068	0.72
1940s	374,274	419,032	0.89	308,417	419,032	0.74
1950s	412,434	474,605	0.87	392,223	474,605	0.83
1960s	399,774	525,574	0.76	489,103	525,574	0.93
1970s	536,871	670,121	0.80	615,956	670,121	0.92
1980s	895,904	879,118	1.02	766,566	879,118	0.87
1990s	1,206,128	1,035,765	1.16	786,200	1,035,765	0.76
2000s	1,297,795	1,023,346	1.27	679,937	1,023,346	0.66
2010s	1,151,737	807,632	1.43	549,999	807,632	0.68
2020s	952,244	533,209	1.79	302,364	533,209	0.57

By Record Type, 2020s

Against the 1951-1980 level

Observed and expected records by type in the 2020s, World, with the 1951-1980 level
Record type	Observed	Expected	Observed over expected	1951-1980 level
Record high maximum temperature	447,070	266,892	1.68	0.78
Record low maximum temperature	168,114	266,892	0.63	0.91
Record high minimum temperature	505,174	266,317	1.90	0.85
Record low minimum temperature	134,250	266,317	0.50	0.86

The 2020s are not over: this decade runs to 2026, up to 2026-10-14.

Countries

36 with enough records

Countries are listed when at least 1,000 records were expected in 1991-2025.

Download the Data

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily). Records are computed by World Extreme Weather Monitor and are not official NOAA products. (US Government open data (NOAA NCEI)) Data as of 2026-10-14. Observed records are computed by this site from daily maximum and minimum temperature. Expected counts assume a stable climate.

Weather Records Against Chance

Key Facts

How to Read This Page

Observed Over Expected by Year

Record highs

Record lows

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Record lows

By Record Type, 2020s

Countries

Download the Data

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