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Data as of 2026-10-17
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Built 2026-10-19 (19 October 2026)

Weather Records Against Chance: China

In the 2020s, record highs ran at 2.51 times the number expected by chance in China and record lows at 0.45 times.

Data as of . Last revised (2026-10-17).

Key Facts

  • In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 29,956 record highs of daily temperature were observed in China against 11,929 expected by chance, 2.51 times the expected number.
  • In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 5,411 record lows of daily temperature were observed in China against 11,929 expected by chance, 0.45 times the expected number.
  • By type in the 2020s in China, observed over expected was 2.95 for record highs of the daily maximum, 0.39 for record lows of the daily maximum, 2.04 for record highs of the daily minimum, 0.52 for record lows of the daily minimum.
  • In 2026 (to 2026-10-17), record highs ran at 3.21 times the expected number in China and record lows at 0.68 times.
  • Expected counts assume a stable climate: the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k.
  • Readings are whole tenths of a degree and ties are not records, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. This page compares with the the reference period level and not with 1.

How to Read This Page

In a stable climate, the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k. Adding that chance up over every station, day and year gives the number of daily records expected without any change. The site records a station's records from its 31st year of data, so a station-year counts from there.

Readings are whole tenths of a degree, and a tie is not a record, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. For that reason the charts compare observed over expected with the the reference period level, drawn as a dashed line, and not with 1.

Record highs and record lows combine the daily maximum and the daily minimum temperature. The level for each is the average of the two levels in the data. A value above the dashed line means more records than in the reference period; below it means fewer. The numbers show what was observed and how it compares. They do not say why.

Observed Over Expected by Year

Highs and lows

Record highs

Observed over expected record highs by year, China Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in China, for each year from 1981 to 2026. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 1981198619911996200120062011201620212026
Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in China, for each year from 1981 to 2026.
Observed over expected record highs by year, China
Yearrecord highs observed over expected
19811.00
19820.97
19830.98
19840.60
19850.71
19860.72
19871.50
19881.26
19891.07
19901.31
19911.03
19920.84
19930.96
19941.57
19951.04
19961.11
19971.64
19982.47
19991.87
20001.37
20011.52
20022.16
20031.62
20041.58
20051.62
20061.94
20072.11
20081.61
20091.97
20102.20
20111.34
20120.83
20131.52
20141.44
20151.96
20161.78
20171.56
20181.75
20191.71
20201.66
20212.08
20222.59
20232.75
20242.54
20253.54
20263.21

Record lows

Observed over expected record lows by year, China Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in China, for each year from 1981 to 2026. 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1981198619911996200120062011201620212026
Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in China, for each year from 1981 to 2026.
Observed over expected record lows by year, China
Yearrecord lows observed over expected
19810.96
19820.73
19830.72
19840.88
19850.83
19860.78
19871.05
19880.61
19890.70
19900.57
19910.61
19920.81
19930.89
19940.42
19950.54
19960.68
19970.63
19980.54
19990.54
20000.58
20010.53
20020.72
20030.54
20040.51
20050.47
20060.56
20070.39
20080.73
20090.79
20100.83
20110.68
20120.46
20130.79
20140.57
20150.91
20160.66
20170.47
20180.73
20190.48
20200.40
20210.42
20220.52
20230.54
20240.18
20250.62
20260.68

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Counts
Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, China Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in China for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 19811987199319992005201120172023
Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in China for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give.
Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, China
YearRecord highs observedRecord highs expectedRecord lows observedRecord lows expected
19812,0902,0962,0112,096
19822,7862,8782,1132,878
19833,2893,3552,4223,355
19842,2333,7363,2853,736
19852,7363,8523,2153,852
19862,8643,9523,0833,952
19876,1544,1004,3204,100
19885,0954,0462,4854,046
19894,2193,9262,7303,926
19904,9963,8202,1613,820
19913,7823,6842,2373,684
19923,0183,6072,9273,607
19933,3633,5123,1323,512
19945,3653,4191,4423,419
19953,4953,3531,8213,353
19963,6143,2692,2333,269
19975,2273,1892,0183,189
19987,6163,0851,6753,085
19995,6052,9981,6322,998
20004,1223,0081,7493,008
20014,4592,9361,5482,936
20026,2072,8772,0662,877
20034,6802,8921,5532,892
20044,4492,8131,4362,813
20054,5092,7831,3172,783
20065,3012,7271,5222,727
20075,7102,7111,0472,711
20084,3012,6701,9522,670
20095,0602,5752,0462,575
20105,5432,5152,0822,515
20113,3102,4741,6782,474
20122,0342,4381,1212,438
20132,0941,3801,0951,380
20142,6251,8191,0351,819
20151,919979892979
20161,691948622948
20171,448931442931
20181,569899656899
20191,601934450934
20203,4482,0828282,082
20214,2222,0328502,032
20225,2872,0401,0522,040
20235,0291,8319881,831
20244,5511,7903201,790
20255,4151,5299461,529
20262,004624427624

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Observed over expected record highs by decade, China Decade values in China: 1980s 0.99, 1990s 1.36, 2000s 1.74, 2010s 1.56, 2020s 2.51. The 2020s run to 2026. 0.0 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.0 1980s1990s2000s2010s2020s
Decade values in China: 1980s 0.99, 1990s 1.36, 2000s 1.74, 2010s 1.56, 2020s 2.51. The 2020s run to 2026.
Observed over expected record highs by decade, China
Decaderecord highs observed over expected
1980s0.99
1990s1.36
2000s1.74
2010s1.56
2020s2.51

Record lows

Observed over expected record lows by decade, China Decade values in China: 1980s 0.80, 1990s 0.63, 2000s 0.58, 2010s 0.66, 2020s 0.45. The 2020s run to 2026. 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1980s1990s2000s2010s2020s
Decade values in China: 1980s 0.80, 1990s 0.63, 2000s 0.58, 2010s 0.66, 2020s 0.45. The 2020s run to 2026.
Observed over expected record lows by decade, China
Decaderecord lows observed over expected
1980s0.80
1990s0.63
2000s0.58
2010s0.66
2020s0.45
Observed and expected daily temperature records by decade, China
DecadeHighs observedHighs expectedHighs observed over expectedLows observedLows expectedLows observed over expected
1980s31,46631,9390.9925,66431,9390.80
1990s46,08133,9351.3621,27833,9350.63
2000s48,79827,9921.7416,23627,9920.58
2010s23,83415,3161.5610,07315,3160.66
2020s29,95611,9292.515,41111,9290.45

By Record Type, 2020s

Against the the reference period level
Observed and expected records by type in the 2020s, China, with the the reference period level
Record typeObservedExpectedObserved over expectedthe reference period level
Record high maximum temperature18,0956,1292.95n/a
Record low maximum temperature2,4106,1290.39n/a
Record high minimum temperature11,8615,8002.04n/a
Record low minimum temperature3,0015,8000.52n/a

The 2020s are not over: this decade runs to 2026, up to 2026-10-17.

Download the Data

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily). Records are computed by World Extreme Weather Monitor and are not official NOAA products. (US Government open data (NOAA NCEI)) Data as of 2026-10-17. Observed records are computed by this site from daily maximum and minimum temperature. Expected counts assume a stable climate.