Weather Records Against Chance: Russia

In the 2020s, record highs ran at 2.31 times the number expected by chance in Russia (1951-1980: 1.03) and record lows at 0.56 times (1951-1980: 1.00).

Data as of 2026-10-17. Last revised 17 October 2026 (2026-10-17).

Key Facts

In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 39,277 record highs of daily temperature were observed in Russia against 16,990 expected by chance, 2.31 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 1.03.
In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 9,544 record lows of daily temperature were observed in Russia against 16,990 expected by chance, 0.56 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 1.00.
By type in the 2020s in Russia, observed over expected was 2.14 for record highs of the daily maximum, 0.50 for record lows of the daily maximum, 2.54 for record highs of the daily minimum, 0.64 for record lows of the daily minimum.
In 2026 (to 2026-10-17), record highs ran at 2.90 times the expected number in Russia and record lows at 0.48 times.
Expected counts assume a stable climate: the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k.
Readings are whole tenths of a degree and ties are not records, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. This page compares with the 1951-1980 level and not with 1.

How to Read This Page

In a stable climate, the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k. Adding that chance up over every station, day and year gives the number of daily records expected without any change. The site records a station's records from its 31st year of data, so a station-year counts from there.

Readings are whole tenths of a degree, and a tie is not a record, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. For that reason the charts compare observed over expected with the 1951-1980 level (1.03 for record highs and 1.00 for record lows in this data), drawn as a dashed line, and not with 1.

Record highs and record lows combine the daily maximum and the daily minimum temperature. The level for each is the average of the two levels in the data. A value above the dashed line means more records than in 1951-1980; below it means fewer. The numbers show what was observed and how it compares. They do not say why.

Observed Over Expected by Year

Highs and lows

Record highs

Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in Russia, for each year from 1920 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 1.03.

Observed over expected record highs by year, Russia
Year	record highs observed over expected
1920	1.67
1921	1.40
1922	0.80
1923	1.40
1924	0.97
1925	1.43
1926	1.07
1927	1.12
1928	0.67
1929	0.94
1930	1.37
1931	0.90
1932	1.50
1933	0.73
1934	1.13
1935	1.24
1936	1.50
1937	1.38
1938	2.11
1939	1.18
1940	1.24
1941	0.61
1942	0.74
1943	1.44
1944	1.28
1945	0.68
1946	1.05
1947	0.97
1948	1.74
1949	1.08
1950	1.24
1951	1.44
1952	0.88
1953	1.05
1954	1.14
1955	1.31
1956	0.70
1957	1.31
1958	0.88
1959	1.07
1960	0.94
1961	1.07
1962	1.51
1963	1.14
1964	0.78
1965	0.75
1966	1.05
1967	1.42
1968	1.16
1969	0.79
1970	0.85
1971	1.12
1972	1.06
1973	1.02
1974	1.00
1975	1.51
1976	0.66
1977	1.07
1978	0.85
1979	1.07
1980	0.82
1981	1.40
1982	1.21
1983	1.39
1984	1.07
1985	0.72
1986	0.98
1987	0.69
1988	1.23
1989	1.65
1990	2.13
1991	1.44
1992	1.04
1993	1.01
1994	1.08
1995	2.26
1996	1.19
1997	1.50
1998	1.74
1999	1.58
2000	1.38
2001	1.67
2002	2.15
2003	1.34
2004	1.39
2005	1.49
2006	1.62
2007	2.34
2008	2.04
2009	1.11
2010	2.49
2011	1.37
2012	1.62
2013	1.60
2014	1.85
2015	2.14
2016	1.87
2017	1.60
2018	1.45
2019	1.83
2020	2.80
2021	2.05
2022	1.43
2023	2.31
2024	1.88
2025	4.44
2026	2.90

Record lows

Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in Russia, for each year from 1920 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 1.00.

Observed over expected record lows by year, Russia
Year	record lows observed over expected
1920	0.94
1921	0.72
1922	0.65
1923	0.65
1924	0.72
1925	0.50
1926	0.91
1927	0.79
1928	0.70
1929	1.27
1930	0.90
1931	0.82
1932	0.51
1933	0.99
1934	0.56
1935	0.59
1936	0.56
1937	0.55
1938	0.43
1939	0.65
1940	1.01
1941	1.33
1942	1.17
1943	0.38
1944	0.54
1945	0.83
1946	0.75
1947	0.82
1948	0.47
1949	0.65
1950	0.95
1951	0.78
1952	1.03
1953	0.66
1954	0.69
1955	1.08
1956	1.17
1957	0.88
1958	1.21
1959	0.68
1960	0.82
1961	0.66
1962	0.55
1963	0.84
1964	1.04
1965	0.91
1966	1.39
1967	0.76
1968	1.41
1969	1.92
1970	0.85
1971	0.86
1972	0.99
1973	0.79
1974	0.82
1975	0.50
1976	1.32
1977	1.03
1978	1.01
1979	1.24
1980	0.80
1981	0.59
1982	0.84
1983	0.54
1984	0.86
1985	0.82
1986	0.70
1987	1.21
1988	0.48
1989	0.53
1990	0.40
1991	0.45
1992	0.97
1993	0.96
1994	0.70
1995	0.42
1996	0.79
1997	0.69
1998	1.15
1999	0.95
2000	0.55
2001	0.73
2002	0.73
2003	0.53
2004	0.52
2005	0.31
2006	0.83
2007	0.28
2008	0.40
2009	0.66
2010	0.65
2011	0.42
2012	0.51
2013	0.37
2014	0.59
2015	0.34
2016	0.52
2017	0.41
2018	0.47
2019	0.63
2020	0.35
2021	0.85
2022	0.45
2023	0.70
2024	0.43
2025	0.61
2026	0.48

The charts start in 1920. 9 earlier years are left out because too few records were expected from the few stations with a long enough record. The data download has every year.

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Counts

Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in Russia for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give.

Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, Russia
Year	Record highs observed	Record highs expected	Record lows observed	Record lows expected
1920	381	228	213	228
1921	319	228	164	228
1922	207	259	167	259
1923	389	277	179	277
1924	308	318	229	318
1925	546	382	192	382
1926	468	437	399	437
1927	496	445	352	445
1928	327	487	341	487
1929	454	482	615	482
1930	724	530	477	530
1931	507	563	463	563
1932	883	591	303	591
1933	406	557	549	557
1934	678	602	337	602
1935	730	589	347	589
1936	916	611	343	611
1937	859	625	344	625
1938	1,292	613	264	613
1939	751	639	413	639
1940	825	668	676	668
1941	425	699	926	699
1942	489	659	773	659
1943	1,076	749	287	749
1944	1,129	880	475	880
1945	629	923	763	923
1946	956	909	681	909
1947	1,023	1,052	862	1,052
1948	2,049	1,176	556	1,176
1949	1,279	1,180	767	1,180
1950	1,559	1,256	1,197	1,256
1951	1,872	1,302	1,019	1,302
1952	1,168	1,320	1,354	1,320
1953	1,470	1,394	924	1,394
1954	1,613	1,410	969	1,410
1955	1,934	1,481	1,596	1,481
1956	1,054	1,497	1,751	1,497
1957	2,042	1,555	1,364	1,555
1958	1,425	1,621	1,963	1,621
1959	1,780	1,663	1,137	1,663
1960	1,619	1,722	1,405	1,722
1961	1,945	1,826	1,207	1,826
1962	2,828	1,874	1,029	1,874
1963	2,275	1,998	1,669	1,998
1964	1,672	2,135	2,221	2,135
1965	1,683	2,232	2,038	2,232
1966	4,359	4,137	5,761	4,137
1967	6,980	4,901	3,719	4,901
1968	6,051	5,212	7,326	5,212
1969	4,352	5,530	10,645	5,530
1970	4,972	5,823	4,978	5,823
1971	6,536	5,845	5,033	5,845
1972	6,175	5,837	5,771	5,837
1973	5,924	5,806	4,577	5,806
1974	5,858	5,839	4,792	5,839
1975	8,826	5,845	2,928	5,845
1976	3,798	5,771	7,593	5,771
1977	6,154	5,778	5,956	5,778
1978	5,075	5,981	6,043	5,981
1979	6,353	5,923	7,357	5,923
1980	4,856	5,931	4,728	5,931
1981	8,133	5,828	3,427	5,828
1982	6,955	5,762	4,826	5,762
1983	7,963	5,713	3,092	5,713
1984	6,084	5,712	4,898	5,712
1985	4,036	5,623	4,633	5,623
1986	5,527	5,639	3,960	5,639
1987	3,977	5,773	7,013	5,773
1988	7,228	5,883	2,818	5,883
1989	10,705	6,471	3,406	6,471
1990	15,226	7,144	2,858	7,144
1991	10,401	7,206	3,208	7,206
1992	7,615	7,301	7,096	7,301
1993	7,474	7,396	7,095	7,396
1994	7,831	7,234	5,081	7,234
1995	16,127	7,136	3,014	7,136
1996	8,827	7,391	5,830	7,391
1997	11,007	7,353	5,059	7,353
1998	12,719	7,326	8,425	7,326
1999	11,547	7,316	6,971	7,316
2000	9,851	7,113	3,947	7,113
2001	12,016	7,215	5,256	7,215
2002	15,683	7,294	5,296	7,294
2003	10,044	7,472	3,982	7,472
2004	10,390	7,473	3,916	7,473
2005	11,189	7,508	2,316	7,508
2006	12,047	7,431	6,133	7,431
2007	17,480	7,462	2,093	7,462
2008	15,185	7,439	2,954	7,439
2009	8,184	7,357	4,827	7,357
2010	18,289	7,338	4,786	7,338
2011	9,956	7,268	3,046	7,268
2012	11,868	7,343	3,711	7,343
2013	9,951	6,216	2,284	6,216
2014	11,001	5,959	3,532	5,959
2015	13,754	6,439	2,177	6,439
2016	11,914	6,382	3,324	6,382
2017	10,049	6,263	2,567	6,263
2018	8,759	6,061	2,845	6,061
2019	6,925	3,778	2,368	3,778
2020	9,048	3,234	1,148	3,234
2021	6,504	3,174	2,703	3,174
2022	4,364	3,049	1,378	3,049
2023	6,934	3,000	2,111	3,000
2024	5,372	2,857	1,220	2,857
2025	6,342	1,429	865	1,429
2026	713	246	119	246

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Decade values in Russia: 1910s 1.12, 1920s 1.10, 1930s 1.31, 1940s 1.11, 1950s 1.10, 1960s 1.07, 1970s 1.02, 1980s 1.12, 1990s 1.49, 2000s 1.65, 2010s 1.78, 2020s 2.31. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 1.03.

Observed over expected record highs by decade, Russia
Decade	record highs observed over expected
1910s	1.12
1920s	1.10
1930s	1.31
1940s	1.11
1950s	1.10
1960s	1.07
1970s	1.02
1980s	1.12
1990s	1.49
2000s	1.65
2010s	1.78
2020s	2.31

Record lows

Decade values in Russia: 1910s 0.88, 1920s 0.80, 1930s 0.65, 1940s 0.76, 1950s 0.92, 1960s 1.17, 1970s 0.94, 1980s 0.73, 1990s 0.75, 2000s 0.55, 2010s 0.49, 2020s 0.56. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 1.00.

Observed over expected record lows by decade, Russia
Decade	record lows observed over expected
1910s	0.88
1920s	0.80
1930s	0.65
1940s	0.76
1950s	0.92
1960s	1.17
1970s	0.94
1980s	0.73
1990s	0.75
2000s	0.55
2010s	0.49
2020s	0.56

Observed and expected daily temperature records by decade, Russia
Decade	Highs observed	Highs expected	Highs observed over expected	Lows observed	Lows expected	Lows observed over expected
1910s	760	676	1.12	595	676	0.88
1920s	3,895	3,543	1.10	2,851	3,543	0.80
1930s	7,746	5,918	1.31	3,840	5,918	0.65
1940s	9,880	8,893	1.11	6,766	8,893	0.76
1950s	15,917	14,498	1.10	13,274	14,498	0.92
1960s	33,764	31,568	1.07	37,020	31,568	1.17
1970s	59,671	58,448	1.02	55,028	58,448	0.94
1980s	65,464	58,335	1.12	42,801	58,335	0.73
1990s	108,774	72,801	1.49	54,637	72,801	0.75
2000s	122,069	73,762	1.65	40,720	73,762	0.55
2010s	112,466	63,045	1.78	30,640	63,045	0.49
2020s	39,277	16,990	2.31	9,544	16,990	0.56

By Record Type, 2020s

Against the 1951-1980 level

Observed and expected records by type in the 2020s, Russia, with the 1951-1980 level
Record type	Observed	Expected	Observed over expected	1951-1980 level
Record high maximum temperature	20,903	9,751	2.14	1.00
Record low maximum temperature	4,918	9,751	0.50	1.04
Record high minimum temperature	18,374	7,239	2.54	1.06
Record low minimum temperature	4,626	7,239	0.64	0.96

The 2020s are not over: this decade runs to 2026, up to 2026-10-17.

Download the Data

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily). Records are computed by World Extreme Weather Monitor and are not official NOAA products. (US Government open data (NOAA NCEI)) Data as of 2026-10-17. Observed records are computed by this site from daily maximum and minimum temperature. Expected counts assume a stable climate.

Weather Records Against Chance: Russia

Key Facts

How to Read This Page

Observed Over Expected by Year

Record highs

Record lows

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Record lows

By Record Type, 2020s

Download the Data

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