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Data as of 2026-10-17
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Built 2026-10-19 (19 October 2026)

Weather Records Against Chance: Mongolia

In the 2020s, record highs ran at 2.45 times the number expected by chance in Mongolia and record lows at 0.83 times.

Data as of . Last revised (2026-10-17).

Key Facts

  • In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 7,829 record highs of daily temperature were observed in Mongolia against 3,191 expected by chance, 2.45 times the expected number.
  • In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 2,642 record lows of daily temperature were observed in Mongolia against 3,191 expected by chance, 0.83 times the expected number.
  • By type in the 2020s in Mongolia, observed over expected was 1.37 for record highs of the daily maximum, 1.01 for record lows of the daily maximum, 3.85 for record highs of the daily minimum, 0.60 for record lows of the daily minimum.
  • In 2026 (to 2026-10-17), record highs ran at 4.09 times the expected number in Mongolia and record lows at 0.91 times.
  • Expected counts assume a stable climate: the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k.
  • Readings are whole tenths of a degree and ties are not records, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. This page compares with the the reference period level and not with 1.

How to Read This Page

In a stable climate, the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k. Adding that chance up over every station, day and year gives the number of daily records expected without any change. The site records a station's records from its 31st year of data, so a station-year counts from there.

Readings are whole tenths of a degree, and a tie is not a record, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. For that reason the charts compare observed over expected with the the reference period level, drawn as a dashed line, and not with 1.

Record highs and record lows combine the daily maximum and the daily minimum temperature. The level for each is the average of the two levels in the data. A value above the dashed line means more records than in the reference period; below it means fewer. The numbers show what was observed and how it compares. They do not say why.

Observed Over Expected by Year

Highs and lows

Record highs

Observed over expected record highs by year, Mongolia Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in Mongolia, for each year from 1997 to 2026. 0.0 1.3 2.5 3.8 5.0 1997200020032006200920122015201820212024
Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in Mongolia, for each year from 1997 to 2026.
Observed over expected record highs by year, Mongolia
Yearrecord highs observed over expected
19972.08
19982.61
19992.04
20001.41
20011.94
20022.72
20031.05
20041.82
20051.18
20061.55
20072.42
20081.89
20091.53
20101.99
20110.74
20120.76
20131.17
20141.92
20152.28
20161.82
20171.75
20181.71
20191.89
20201.41
20211.71
20221.72
20232.14
20241.81
20254.31
20264.09

Record lows

Observed over expected record lows by year, Mongolia Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in Mongolia, for each year from 1997 to 2026. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 1997200020032006200920122015201820212024
Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in Mongolia, for each year from 1997 to 2026.
Observed over expected record lows by year, Mongolia
Yearrecord lows observed over expected
19970.46
19980.89
19990.75
20001.22
20011.30
20021.15
20031.18
20040.78
20051.38
20060.91
20070.24
20080.64
20091.09
20101.99
20111.18
20121.32
20130.63
20140.48
20150.67
20161.02
20170.47
20180.78
20190.75
20200.75
20210.76
20220.96
20231.04
20240.50
20250.87
20260.91

The charts start in 1997. 7 earlier years are left out because too few records were expected from the few stations with a long enough record. The data download has every year.

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Counts
Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, Mongolia Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in Mongolia for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 19972001200520092013201720212025
Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in Mongolia for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give.
Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, Mongolia
YearRecord highs observedRecord highs expectedRecord lows observedRecord lows expected
1997477229105229
1998665255228255
1999425208157208
2000286203247203
2001474244317244
2002715263302263
2003375357420357
2004675371289371
2005454384531384
2006573369337369
200794238993389
2008720380243380
2009582381415381
2010726365726365
2011277375443375
2012283372493372
2013423363228363
2014774402195402
20151,112488329488
2016912501509501
2017906517245517
2018868507395507
2019974516386516
2020710504377504
2021835488372488
2022790459441459
2023906424441424
2024726400199400
20252,262525455525
20261,600391357391

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Observed over expected record highs by decade, Mongolia Decade values in Mongolia: 1990s 1.67, 2000s 1.74, 2010s 1.65, 2020s 2.45. The 2020s run to 2026. 0.0 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.5 1990s2000s2010s2020s
Decade values in Mongolia: 1990s 1.67, 2000s 1.74, 2010s 1.65, 2020s 2.45. The 2020s run to 2026.
Observed over expected record highs by decade, Mongolia
Decaderecord highs observed over expected
1990s1.67
2000s1.74
2010s1.65
2020s2.45

Record lows

Observed over expected record lows by decade, Mongolia Decade values in Mongolia: 1990s 0.64, 2000s 0.96, 2010s 0.90, 2020s 0.83. The 2020s run to 2026. 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1990s2000s2010s2020s
Decade values in Mongolia: 1990s 0.64, 2000s 0.96, 2010s 0.90, 2020s 0.83. The 2020s run to 2026.
Observed over expected record lows by decade, Mongolia
Decaderecord lows observed over expected
1990s0.64
2000s0.96
2010s0.90
2020s0.83
Observed and expected daily temperature records by decade, Mongolia
DecadeHighs observedHighs expectedHighs observed over expectedLows observedLows expectedLows observed over expected
1990s3,0181,8071.671,1571,8070.64
2000s5,7963,3401.743,1943,3400.96
2010s7,2554,4071.653,9494,4070.90
2020s7,8293,1912.452,6423,1910.83

By Record Type, 2020s

Against the the reference period level
Observed and expected records by type in the 2020s, Mongolia, with the the reference period level
Record typeObservedExpectedObserved over expectedthe reference period level
Record high maximum temperature2,4571,7951.37n/a
Record low maximum temperature1,8061,7951.01n/a
Record high minimum temperature5,3721,3953.85n/a
Record low minimum temperature8361,3950.60n/a

The 2020s are not over: this decade runs to 2026, up to 2026-10-17.

Download the Data

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily). Records are computed by World Extreme Weather Monitor and are not official NOAA products. (US Government open data (NOAA NCEI)) Data as of 2026-10-17. Observed records are computed by this site from daily maximum and minimum temperature. Expected counts assume a stable climate.