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Data as of 2026-10-17
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Built 2026-10-19 (19 October 2026)

Weather Records Against Chance: France

In the 2020s, record highs ran at 2.93 times the number expected by chance in France (1951-1980: 0.83) and record lows at 0.24 times (1951-1980: 0.93).

Data as of . Last revised (2026-10-17).

Key Facts

  • In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 12,150 record highs of daily temperature were observed in France against 4,147 expected by chance, 2.93 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 0.83.
  • In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 1,003 record lows of daily temperature were observed in France against 4,147 expected by chance, 0.24 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 0.93.
  • By type in the 2020s in France, observed over expected was 2.75 for record highs of the daily maximum, 0.21 for record lows of the daily maximum, 3.12 for record highs of the daily minimum, 0.28 for record lows of the daily minimum.
  • In 2026 (to 2026-10-17), record highs ran at 7.59 times the expected number in France and record lows at 0.04 times.
  • Expected counts assume a stable climate: the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k.
  • Readings are whole tenths of a degree and ties are not records, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. This page compares with the 1951-1980 level and not with 1.

How to Read This Page

In a stable climate, the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k. Adding that chance up over every station, day and year gives the number of daily records expected without any change. The site records a station's records from its 31st year of data, so a station-year counts from there.

Readings are whole tenths of a degree, and a tie is not a record, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. For that reason the charts compare observed over expected with the 1951-1980 level (0.83 for record highs and 0.93 for record lows in this data), drawn as a dashed line, and not with 1.

Record highs and record lows combine the daily maximum and the daily minimum temperature. The level for each is the average of the two levels in the data. A value above the dashed line means more records than in 1951-1980; below it means fewer. The numbers show what was observed and how it compares. They do not say why.

Observed Over Expected by Year

Highs and lows

Record highs

Observed over expected record highs by year, France Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in France, for each year from 1956 to 2026. 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 195619641972198019881996200420122020
Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in France, for each year from 1956 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 0.83.
Observed over expected record highs by year, France
Yearrecord highs observed over expected
19560.45
19571.11
19581.11
19590.95
19600.84
19611.76
19620.60
19630.57
19640.84
19650.45
19661.10
19670.87
19680.87
19690.68
19700.69
19710.63
19720.25
19730.63
19740.86
19751.01
19761.13
19770.99
19780.73
19790.75
19800.59
19811.22
19821.18
19831.81
19840.76
19851.14
19860.83
19871.65
19881.21
19892.30
19902.29
19911.06
19921.23
19931.14
19941.79
19951.45
19960.86
19972.00
19981.68
19991.29
20001.33
20011.54
20021.73
20033.62
20041.30
20052.10
20062.30
20071.82
20080.67
20091.27
20100.80
20112.17
20121.44
20131.19
20141.68
20152.66
20161.44
20172.07
20182.10
20192.08
20202.31
20211.47
20223.69
20233.32
20242.27
20252.81
20267.59

Record lows

Observed over expected record lows by year, France Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in France, for each year from 1956 to 2026. 0.0 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.5 195619641972198019881996200420122020
Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in France, for each year from 1956 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 0.93.
Observed over expected record lows by year, France
Yearrecord lows observed over expected
19562.04
19570.62
19580.84
19590.22
19600.76
19610.47
19621.61
19631.55
19640.74
19650.95
19660.81
19670.79
19680.66
19691.02
19700.76
19711.21
19721.06
19730.74
19741.04
19750.92
19760.51
19771.01
19781.08
19790.82
19801.33
19810.83
19820.27
19830.52
19840.80
19851.85
19861.28
19870.89
19880.38
19890.31
19900.24
19910.91
19920.54
19931.06
19940.36
19950.45
19960.69
19970.55
19980.63
19990.23
20000.31
20010.51
20020.26
20030.50
20040.30
20050.73
20060.51
20070.88
20080.49
20090.59
20101.25
20110.40
20120.99
20131.08
20140.22
20150.38
20160.39
20170.47
20180.53
20190.33
20200.25
20210.37
20220.36
20230.10
20240.24
20250.12
20260.04

The charts start in 1956. 29 earlier years are left out because too few records were expected from the few stations with a long enough record. The data download has every year.

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Counts
Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, France Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in France for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give. 0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 19561965197419831992200120102019
Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in France for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give.
Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, France
YearRecord highs observedRecord highs expectedRecord lows observedRecord lows expected
195690200409200
1957268242151242
1958260235198235
195924125457254
1960209247187247
1961464264125264
1962154257414257
1963142250387250
1964206246183246
1965108239227239
1966257234190234
1967199229180229
1968194224148224
1969148219224219
1970164239181239
1971147233282233
197258229242229
1973171271200271
1974248289299289
1975427423389423
1976573506257506
1977583587592587
1978435595644595
1979450602491602
1980373635846635
1981756619515619
1982714603165603
19831,067591308591
1984440579462579
19856385611,036561
1986458551707551
1987884537475537
1988644530200530
19891,194519160519
19901,221533127533
1991579544493544
1992657534287534
1993594521553521
1994958536191536
1995758523233523
1996444514355514
19971,060529292529
1998911544342544
1999715556129556
2000714538165538
2001799517266517
2002880509134509
20031,861515256515
2004661508151508
20051,080515375515
20061,835797403797
20071,692928818928
2008608914446914
20091,152907536907
20107048761,095876
20111,909882353882
20121,250870861870
2013980824894824
20141,361811179811
20152,188824311824
20161,162807317807
20171,646797375797
20181,675799421799
20191,664798266798
20201,668723184723
20211,056719268719
20222,632712260712
20232,31269673696
20241,537677165677
20251,04037044370
20261,9052519251

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Observed over expected record highs by decade, France Decade values in France: 1920s 1.11, 1930s 1.14, 1940s 1.50, 1950s 0.93, 1960s 0.86, 1970s 0.82, 1980s 1.25, 1990s 1.48, 2000s 1.70, 2010s 1.75, 2020s 2.93. The 2020s run to 2026. 0.0 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.0 1920s1940s1960s1980s2000s2020s
Decade values in France: 1920s 1.11, 1930s 1.14, 1940s 1.50, 1950s 0.93, 1960s 0.86, 1970s 0.82, 1980s 1.25, 1990s 1.48, 2000s 1.70, 2010s 1.75, 2020s 2.93. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 0.83.
Observed over expected record highs by decade, France
Decaderecord highs observed over expected
1920s1.11
1930s1.14
1940s1.50
1950s0.93
1960s0.86
1970s0.82
1980s1.25
1990s1.48
2000s1.70
2010s1.75
2020s2.93

Record lows

Observed over expected record lows by decade, France Decade values in France: 1920s 0.47, 1930s 0.78, 1940s 0.95, 1950s 0.81, 1960s 0.94, 1970s 0.90, 1980s 0.85, 1990s 0.56, 2000s 0.53, 2010s 0.61, 2020s 0.24. The 2020s run to 2026. 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1920s1940s1960s1980s2000s2020s
Decade values in France: 1920s 0.47, 1930s 0.78, 1940s 0.95, 1950s 0.81, 1960s 0.94, 1970s 0.90, 1980s 0.85, 1990s 0.56, 2000s 0.53, 2010s 0.61, 2020s 0.24. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 0.93.
Observed over expected record lows by decade, France
Decaderecord lows observed over expected
1920s0.47
1930s0.78
1940s0.95
1950s0.81
1960s0.94
1970s0.90
1980s0.85
1990s0.56
2000s0.53
2010s0.61
2020s0.24
Observed and expected daily temperature records by decade, France
DecadeHighs observedHighs expectedHighs observed over expectedLows observedLows expectedLows observed over expected
1920s38341.1116340.47
1930s8777701.145997700.78
1940s1,0046691.506336690.95
1950s1,5991,7190.931,3881,7190.81
1960s2,0812,4090.862,2652,4090.94
1970s3,2563,9730.823,5773,9730.90
1980s7,1685,7251.254,8745,7250.85
1990s7,8975,3331.483,0025,3330.56
2000s11,2826,6471.703,5506,6470.53
2010s14,5398,2861.755,0728,2860.61
2020s12,1504,1472.931,0034,1470.24

By Record Type, 2020s

Against the 1951-1980 level
Observed and expected records by type in the 2020s, France, with the 1951-1980 level
Record typeObservedExpectedObserved over expected1951-1980 level
Record high maximum temperature5,9482,1622.750.71
Record low maximum temperature4462,1620.211.10
Record high minimum temperature6,2021,9853.120.96
Record low minimum temperature5571,9850.280.75

The 2020s are not over: this decade runs to 2026, up to 2026-10-17.

Download the Data

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily). Records are computed by World Extreme Weather Monitor and are not official NOAA products. (US Government open data (NOAA NCEI)) Data as of 2026-10-17. Observed records are computed by this site from daily maximum and minimum temperature. Expected counts assume a stable climate.