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Data as of 2026-10-17
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Built 2026-10-19 (19 October 2026)

Weather Records Against Chance: Spain

In the 2020s, record highs ran at 2.74 times the number expected by chance in Spain (1951-1980: 0.86) and record lows at 0.25 times (1951-1980: 1.02).

Data as of . Last revised (2026-10-17).

Key Facts

  • In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 19,661 record highs of daily temperature were observed in Spain against 7,182 expected by chance, 2.74 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 0.86.
  • In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 1,799 record lows of daily temperature were observed in Spain against 7,182 expected by chance, 0.25 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 1.02.
  • By type in the 2020s in Spain, observed over expected was 2.74 for record highs of the daily maximum, 0.24 for record lows of the daily maximum, 2.74 for record highs of the daily minimum, 0.26 for record lows of the daily minimum.
  • In 2026 (to 2026-10-17), record highs ran at 3.94 times the expected number in Spain and record lows at 0.13 times.
  • Expected counts assume a stable climate: the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k.
  • Readings are whole tenths of a degree and ties are not records, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. This page compares with the 1951-1980 level and not with 1.

How to Read This Page

In a stable climate, the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k. Adding that chance up over every station, day and year gives the number of daily records expected without any change. The site records a station's records from its 31st year of data, so a station-year counts from there.

Readings are whole tenths of a degree, and a tie is not a record, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. For that reason the charts compare observed over expected with the 1951-1980 level (0.86 for record highs and 1.02 for record lows in this data), drawn as a dashed line, and not with 1.

Record highs and record lows combine the daily maximum and the daily minimum temperature. The level for each is the average of the two levels in the data. A value above the dashed line means more records than in 1951-1980; below it means fewer. The numbers show what was observed and how it compares. They do not say why.

Observed Over Expected by Year

Highs and lows

Record highs

Observed over expected record highs by year, Spain Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in Spain, for each year from 1953 to 2026. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 1953196119691977198519932001200920172025
Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in Spain, for each year from 1953 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 0.86.
Observed over expected record highs by year, Spain
Yearrecord highs observed over expected
19530.71
19540.81
19551.42
19560.49
19570.73
19581.27
19590.75
19601.03
19611.50
19621.00
19630.67
19641.20
19650.86
19661.10
19670.79
19681.00
19690.59
19700.96
19710.49
19720.26
19730.56
19740.65
19750.66
19760.72
19771.07
19781.25
19790.91
19801.05
19811.68
19821.04
19831.66
19840.60
19851.48
19860.62
19871.85
19881.14
19891.69
19901.54
19911.03
19920.93
19930.54
19941.49
19952.06
19960.92
19971.75
19981.56
19991.19
20001.08
20011.98
20021.14
20032.02
20041.58
20051.49
20061.95
20070.97
20080.97
20091.71
20101.42
20111.83
20121.78
20131.31
20141.77
20152.46
20161.61
20172.35
20181.21
20191.53
20201.99
20211.48
20223.33
20233.77
20242.64
20252.57
20263.94

Record lows

Observed over expected record lows by year, Spain Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in Spain, for each year from 1953 to 2026. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 1953196119691977198519932001200920172025
Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in Spain, for each year from 1953 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 1.02.
Observed over expected record lows by year, Spain
Yearrecord lows observed over expected
19530.78
19541.37
19550.64
19561.82
19570.91
19580.82
19590.29
19600.61
19610.32
19621.12
19631.07
19640.62
19651.09
19660.61
19670.91
19680.59
19691.22
19701.22
19711.47
19721.70
19731.07
19741.12
19751.10
19760.79
19771.51
19781.07
19790.75
19801.17
19810.70
19820.39
19830.66
19841.10
19851.11
19860.76
19870.58
19880.60
19890.30
19900.32
19910.74
19920.85
19930.94
19940.50
19950.36
19960.55
19970.39
19980.32
19990.40
20000.29
20010.62
20020.35
20030.33
20040.53
20051.08
20060.45
20070.61
20080.62
20090.51
20100.85
20110.28
20120.66
20130.65
20140.17
20150.38
20160.21
20170.44
20180.48
20190.33
20200.30
20210.46
20220.28
20230.20
20240.17
20250.15
20260.13

The charts start in 1953. 17 earlier years are left out because too few records were expected from the few stations with a long enough record. The data download has every year.

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Counts
Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, Spain Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in Spain for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give. 0 1,250 2,500 3,750 5,000 19531963197319831993200320132023
Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in Spain for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give.
Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, Spain
YearRecord highs observedRecord highs expectedRecord lows observedRecord lows expected
1953145203158203
1954175217298217
1955310218140218
1956117238433238
1957201277251277
1958338265218265
195919526175261
1960264256156256
196141627888278
1962270270302270
1963193288309288
1964340282174282
1965254297322297
1966318290176290
1967212270245270
1968359358210358
1969258437533437
1970404422514422
1971198404595404
1972116449763449
1973263469501469
1974333513574513
1975407617678617
1976463640507640
1977687643969643
1978780624667624
1979575634474634
1980634605709605
19811,145680479680
1982704675265675
19831,122677444677
1984392650712650
1985985665735665
1986422677516677
19871,235668390668
1988741653393653
19891,188703212703
19901,106718230718
1991814787580787
1992726784664784
1993423782735782
19941,131758376758
19951,547752267752
1996713772428772
19971,368782305782
19981,376882282882
19991,027864347864
2000938872257872
20011,807914562914
20021,067935323935
20032,1851,0823531,082
20041,8991,2026341,202
20051,7881,2001,2911,200
20062,3351,1975331,197
20071,1391,1707151,170
20081,1321,1637231,163
20091,9311,1325751,132
20101,5971,1279571,127
20112,0281,1113061,111
20122,0751,1687701,168
20131,5321,1697621,169
20142,1631,2252131,225
20152,9971,2194641,219
20161,8821,1712451,171
20172,7061,1505061,150
20181,3971,1525581,152
20191,7631,1503801,150
20202,3111,1623511,162
20211,6761,1325221,132
20223,6941,1113071,111
20234,0281,0692101,069
20242,7261,0321731,032
20252,5821,0061491,006
20262,64467187671

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Observed over expected record highs by decade, Spain Decade values in Spain: 1930s 1.26, 1940s 1.03, 1950s 0.89, 1960s 0.95, 1970s 0.78, 1980s 1.29, 1990s 1.30, 2000s 1.49, 2010s 1.73, 2020s 2.74. The 2020s run to 2026. 0.0 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.0 1930s1940s1950s1960s1970s1980s1990s2000s2010s2020s
Decade values in Spain: 1930s 1.26, 1940s 1.03, 1950s 0.89, 1960s 0.95, 1970s 0.78, 1980s 1.29, 1990s 1.30, 2000s 1.49, 2010s 1.73, 2020s 2.74. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 0.86.
Observed over expected record highs by decade, Spain
Decaderecord highs observed over expected
1930s1.26
1940s1.03
1950s0.89
1960s0.95
1970s0.78
1980s1.29
1990s1.30
2000s1.49
2010s1.73
2020s2.74

Record lows

Observed over expected record lows by decade, Spain Decade values in Spain: 1930s 0.95, 1940s 0.98, 1950s 0.89, 1960s 0.83, 1970s 1.15, 1980s 0.73, 1990s 0.53, 2000s 0.55, 2010s 0.44, 2020s 0.25. The 2020s run to 2026. 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1930s1940s1950s1960s1970s1980s1990s2000s2010s2020s
Decade values in Spain: 1930s 0.95, 1940s 0.98, 1950s 0.89, 1960s 0.83, 1970s 1.15, 1980s 0.73, 1990s 0.53, 2000s 0.55, 2010s 0.44, 2020s 0.25. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 1.02.
Observed over expected record lows by decade, Spain
Decaderecord lows observed over expected
1930s0.95
1940s0.98
1950s0.89
1960s0.83
1970s1.15
1980s0.73
1990s0.53
2000s0.55
2010s0.44
2020s0.25
Observed and expected daily temperature records by decade, Spain
DecadeHighs observedHighs expectedHighs observed over expectedLows observedLows expectedLows observed over expected
1930s1841461.261381460.95
1940s6926731.036626730.98
1950s1,9892,2330.891,9892,2330.89
1960s2,8843,0250.952,5153,0250.83
1970s4,2265,4140.786,2425,4141.15
1980s8,5686,6521.294,8556,6520.73
1990s10,2317,8811.304,2147,8810.53
2000s16,22110,8671.495,96610,8670.55
2010s20,14011,6411.735,16111,6410.44
2020s19,6617,1822.741,7997,1820.25

By Record Type, 2020s

Against the 1951-1980 level
Observed and expected records by type in the 2020s, Spain, with the 1951-1980 level
Record typeObservedExpectedObserved over expected1951-1980 level
Record high maximum temperature9,7993,5772.740.82
Record low maximum temperature8483,5770.241.10
Record high minimum temperature9,8623,6052.740.90
Record low minimum temperature9513,6050.260.94

The 2020s are not over: this decade runs to 2026, up to 2026-10-17.

Download the Data

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily). Records are computed by World Extreme Weather Monitor and are not official NOAA products. (US Government open data (NOAA NCEI)) Data as of 2026-10-17. Observed records are computed by this site from daily maximum and minimum temperature. Expected counts assume a stable climate.