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Data as of 2026-10-16
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Built 2026-10-17 (17 October 2026)

Weather Records Against Chance: Estonia

In the 2020s, record highs ran at 3.21 times the number expected by chance in Estonia (1951-1980: 0.90) and record lows at 0.25 times (1951-1980: 1.17).

Data as of . Last revised (2026-10-16).

Key Facts

  • In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-16), 3,609 record highs of daily temperature were observed in Estonia against 1,124 expected by chance, 3.21 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 0.90.
  • In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-16), 277 record lows of daily temperature were observed in Estonia against 1,124 expected by chance, 0.25 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 1.17.
  • By type in the 2020s in Estonia, observed over expected was 2.99 for record highs of the daily maximum, 0.22 for record lows of the daily maximum, 3.43 for record highs of the daily minimum, 0.28 for record lows of the daily minimum.
  • In 2026 (to 2026-10-16), record highs ran at 1.48 times the expected number in Estonia and record lows at 0.11 times.
  • Expected counts assume a stable climate: the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k.
  • Readings are whole tenths of a degree and ties are not records, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. This page compares with the 1951-1980 level and not with 1.

How to Read This Page

In a stable climate, the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k. Adding that chance up over every station, day and year gives the number of daily records expected without any change. The site records a station's records from its 31st year of data, so a station-year counts from there.

Readings are whole tenths of a degree, and a tie is not a record, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. For that reason the charts compare observed over expected with the 1951-1980 level (0.90 for record highs and 1.17 for record lows in this data), drawn as a dashed line, and not with 1.

Record highs and record lows combine the daily maximum and the daily minimum temperature. The level for each is the average of the two levels in the data. A value above the dashed line means more records than in 1951-1980; below it means fewer. The numbers show what was observed and how it compares. They do not say why.

Observed Over Expected by Year

Highs and lows

Record highs

Observed over expected record highs by year, Estonia Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in Estonia, for each year from 2026 to 2026. 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.5 2026
Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in Estonia, for each year from 2026 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 0.90.
Observed over expected record highs by year, Estonia
Yearrecord highs observed over expected
20261.48

Record lows

Observed over expected record lows by year, Estonia Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in Estonia, for each year from 2026 to 2026. 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 2026
Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in Estonia, for each year from 2026 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 1.17.
Observed over expected record lows by year, Estonia
Yearrecord lows observed over expected
20260.11

The charts start in 2026. 114 earlier years are left out because too few records were expected from the few stations with a long enough record. The data download has every year.

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Counts
Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, Estonia Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in Estonia for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give. 0 38 75 113 150 2026
Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in Estonia for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give.
Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, Estonia
YearRecord highs observedRecord highs expectedRecord lows observedRecord lows expected
2026129871087

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Observed over expected record highs by decade, Estonia Decade values in Estonia: 1910s 1.23, 1920s 1.11, 1930s 1.39, 1940s 0.82, 1950s 0.76, 1960s 0.77, 1970s 1.10, 1980s 1.28, 1990s 1.67, 2000s 2.17, 2010s 2.11, 2020s 3.21. The 2020s run to 2026. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 1910s1930s1950s1970s1990s2010s
Decade values in Estonia: 1910s 1.23, 1920s 1.11, 1930s 1.39, 1940s 0.82, 1950s 0.76, 1960s 0.77, 1970s 1.10, 1980s 1.28, 1990s 1.67, 2000s 2.17, 2010s 2.11, 2020s 3.21. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 0.90.
Observed over expected record highs by decade, Estonia
Decaderecord highs observed over expected
1910s1.23
1920s1.11
1930s1.39
1940s0.82
1950s0.76
1960s0.77
1970s1.10
1980s1.28
1990s1.67
2000s2.17
2010s2.11
2020s3.21

Record lows

Observed over expected record lows by decade, Estonia Decade values in Estonia: 1910s 1.02, 1920s 0.60, 1930s 0.42, 1940s 0.88, 1950s 1.10, 1960s 1.12, 1970s 1.25, 1980s 0.80, 1990s 0.66, 2000s 0.50, 2010s 0.50, 2020s 0.25. The 2020s run to 2026. 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.5 1910s1930s1950s1970s1990s2010s
Decade values in Estonia: 1910s 1.02, 1920s 0.60, 1930s 0.42, 1940s 0.88, 1950s 1.10, 1960s 1.12, 1970s 1.25, 1980s 0.80, 1990s 0.66, 2000s 0.50, 2010s 0.50, 2020s 0.25. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 1.17.
Observed over expected record lows by decade, Estonia
Decaderecord lows observed over expected
1910s1.02
1920s0.60
1930s0.42
1940s0.88
1950s1.10
1960s1.12
1970s1.25
1980s0.80
1990s0.66
2000s0.50
2010s0.50
2020s0.25
Observed and expected daily temperature records by decade, Estonia
DecadeHighs observedHighs expectedHighs observed over expectedLows observedLows expectedLows observed over expected
1910s121981.23100981.02
1920s2772491.111492490.60
1930s5884241.391784240.42
1940s3043720.823263720.88
1950s8191,0780.761,1841,0781.10
1960s1,0571,3730.771,5391,3731.12
1970s2,1671,9741.102,4711,9741.25
1980s2,8482,2321.281,7882,2320.80
1990s4,0682,4361.671,6112,4360.66
2000s4,2611,9652.179911,9650.50
2010s3,7711,7842.118831,7840.50
2020s3,6091,1243.212771,1240.25

By Record Type, 2020s

Against the 1951-1980 level
Observed and expected records by type in the 2020s, Estonia, with the 1951-1980 level
Record typeObservedExpectedObserved over expected1951-1980 level
Record high maximum temperature1,6975672.990.89
Record low maximum temperature1225670.221.00
Record high minimum temperature1,9125573.430.91
Record low minimum temperature1555570.281.34

The 2020s are not over: this decade runs to 2026, up to 2026-10-16.

Download the Data

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily). Records are computed by World Extreme Weather Monitor and are not official NOAA products. (US Government open data (NOAA NCEI)) Data as of 2026-10-16. Observed records are computed by this site from daily maximum and minimum temperature. Expected counts assume a stable climate.