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Data as of 2026-10-17
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Built 2026-10-19 (19 October 2026)

Weather Records Against Chance: Japan

In the 2020s, record highs ran at 4.75 times the number expected by chance in Japan (1951-1980: 1.12) and record lows at 0.32 times (1951-1980: 0.86).

Data as of . Last revised (2026-10-17).

Key Facts

  • In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 28,679 record highs of daily temperature were observed in Japan against 6,035 expected by chance, 4.75 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 1.12.
  • In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 1,920 record lows of daily temperature were observed in Japan against 6,035 expected by chance, 0.32 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 0.86.
  • By type in the 2020s in Japan, observed over expected was 3.11 for record highs of the daily maximum, 0.42 for record lows of the daily maximum, 6.75 for record highs of the daily minimum, 0.19 for record lows of the daily minimum.
  • In 2026 (to 2026-10-17), record highs ran at 4.50 times the expected number in Japan and record lows at 0.21 times.
  • Expected counts assume a stable climate: the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k.
  • Readings are whole tenths of a degree and ties are not records, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. This page compares with the 1951-1980 level and not with 1.

How to Read This Page

In a stable climate, the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k. Adding that chance up over every station, day and year gives the number of daily records expected without any change. The site records a station's records from its 31st year of data, so a station-year counts from there.

Readings are whole tenths of a degree, and a tie is not a record, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. For that reason the charts compare observed over expected with the 1951-1980 level (1.12 for record highs and 0.86 for record lows in this data), drawn as a dashed line, and not with 1.

Record highs and record lows combine the daily maximum and the daily minimum temperature. The level for each is the average of the two levels in the data. A value above the dashed line means more records than in 1951-1980; below it means fewer. The numbers show what was observed and how it compares. They do not say why.

Observed Over Expected by Year

Highs and lows

Record highs

Observed over expected record highs by year, Japan Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in Japan, for each year from 1981 to 2026. 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 1981198619911996200120062011201620212026
Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in Japan, for each year from 1981 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 1.12.
Observed over expected record highs by year, Japan
Yearrecord highs observed over expected
19810.58
19820.80
19830.95
19840.74
19850.98
19860.40
19871.57
19880.76
19891.22
19901.85
19911.58
19920.79
19930.91
19942.49
19950.99
19960.89
19971.40
19982.56
19991.71
20001.30
20011.78
20021.64
20031.04
20041.97
20051.19
20061.07
20071.73
20081.17
20091.14
20102.41
20111.74
20121.12
20132.83
20141.17
20151.64
20162.31
20171.40
20182.85
20192.18
20203.71
20212.35
20223.03
20236.45
20247.36
20256.39
20264.50

Record lows

Observed over expected record lows by year, Japan Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in Japan, for each year from 1981 to 2026. 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.5 1981198619911996200120062011201620212026
Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in Japan, for each year from 1981 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 0.86.
Observed over expected record lows by year, Japan
Yearrecord lows observed over expected
19811.48
19820.94
19830.83
19841.30
19850.80
19860.81
19870.71
19880.77
19890.56
19900.22
19910.50
19920.65
19931.25
19940.26
19950.52
19960.92
19970.64
19980.31
19990.47
20000.33
20010.70
20020.95
20030.72
20040.37
20050.63
20060.40
20070.31
20080.45
20090.48
20100.65
20110.53
20120.54
20130.51
20140.50
20150.38
20160.34
20170.46
20180.52
20190.29
20200.41
20210.59
20220.31
20230.36
20240.11
20250.25
20260.21

The charts start in 1981. 20 earlier years are left out because too few records were expected from the few stations with a long enough record. The data download has every year.

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Counts
Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, Japan Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in Japan for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give. 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 19811987199319992005201120172023
Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in Japan for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give.
Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, Japan
YearRecord highs observedRecord highs expectedRecord lows observedRecord lows expected
19811,5962,7604,0812,760
19822,1652,6972,5392,697
19832,5612,6992,2522,699
19841,9902,6853,4962,685
19852,6012,6492,1192,649
19861,0582,6222,1332,622
19874,0772,5961,8542,596
19881,9682,5831,9782,583
19893,0902,5331,4082,533
19901,9641,0622351,062
19911,9881,2616351,261
19921,1171,4139201,413
19931,2721,4051,7591,405
19943,9551,5904091,590
19951,4181,4297401,429
19961,5221,7191,5761,719
19972,0881,4919541,491
19984,1111,6065001,606
19992,7261,5907421,590
20002,0941,6065331,606
20012,0371,1468031,146
20022,3191,4141,3391,414
20031,6521,5871,1491,587
20042,9991,5265621,526
2005859722458722
20061,6161,5166051,516
20072,5681,4854551,485
20081,7301,4826661,482
20091,6131,4116811,411
20103,3621,3949031,394
20112,4121,3907411,390
20121,4801,3177091,317
20132,8791,0165171,016
20141,1941,0195121,019
20152,0011,2204591,220
20162,8691,2414171,241
20171,7331,2405681,240
20183,4031,1946231,194
20192,5451,1683401,168
20202,616706290706
20212,030864513864
20222,654877275877
20233,202496181496
20243,81951958519
20259,4001,4723721,472
20264,9581,1012311,101

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Observed over expected record highs by decade, Japan Decade values in Japan: 1960s 1.13, 1970s 1.06, 1980s 0.89, 1990s 1.52, 2000s 1.40, 2010s 1.96, 2020s 4.75. The 2020s run to 2026. 0.0 1.3 2.5 3.8 5.0 1960s1970s1980s1990s2000s2010s2020s
Decade values in Japan: 1960s 1.13, 1970s 1.06, 1980s 0.89, 1990s 1.52, 2000s 1.40, 2010s 1.96, 2020s 4.75. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 1.12.
Observed over expected record highs by decade, Japan
Decaderecord highs observed over expected
1960s1.13
1970s1.06
1980s0.89
1990s1.52
2000s1.40
2010s1.96
2020s4.75

Record lows

Observed over expected record lows by decade, Japan Decade values in Japan: 1960s 1.01, 1970s 0.69, 1980s 0.92, 1990s 0.58, 2000s 0.52, 2010s 0.47, 2020s 0.32. The 2020s run to 2026. 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1960s1970s1980s1990s2000s2010s2020s
Decade values in Japan: 1960s 1.01, 1970s 0.69, 1980s 0.92, 1990s 0.58, 2000s 0.52, 2010s 0.47, 2020s 0.32. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 0.86.
Observed over expected record lows by decade, Japan
Decaderecord lows observed over expected
1960s1.01
1970s0.69
1980s0.92
1990s0.58
2000s0.52
2010s0.47
2020s0.32
Observed and expected daily temperature records by decade, Japan
DecadeHighs observedHighs expectedHighs observed over expectedLows observedLows expectedLows observed over expected
1960s4243751.133783751.01
1970s3513301.062283300.69
1980s21,15323,8530.8921,88823,8530.92
1990s22,16114,5671.528,47014,5670.58
2000s19,48713,8931.407,25113,8930.52
2010s23,87812,1981.965,78912,1980.47
2020s28,6796,0354.751,9206,0350.32

By Record Type, 2020s

Against the 1951-1980 level
Observed and expected records by type in the 2020s, Japan, with the 1951-1980 level
Record typeObservedExpectedObserved over expected1951-1980 level
Record high maximum temperature10,3253,3173.111.04
Record low maximum temperature1,3993,3170.420.92
Record high minimum temperature18,3542,7186.751.20
Record low minimum temperature5212,7180.190.80

The 2020s are not over: this decade runs to 2026, up to 2026-10-17.

Download the Data

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily). Records are computed by World Extreme Weather Monitor and are not official NOAA products. (US Government open data (NOAA NCEI)) Data as of 2026-10-17. Observed records are computed by this site from daily maximum and minimum temperature. Expected counts assume a stable climate.