Weather Records Against Chance: Germany

In the 2020s, record highs ran at 2.02 times the number expected by chance in Germany (1951-1980: 0.97) and record lows at 0.24 times (1951-1980: 0.95).

Data as of 2026-10-16. Last revised 16 October 2026 (2026-10-16).

Key Facts

In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-16), 48,601 record highs of daily temperature were observed in Germany against 24,003 expected by chance, 2.02 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 0.97.
In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-16), 5,707 record lows of daily temperature were observed in Germany against 24,003 expected by chance, 0.24 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 0.95.
By type in the 2020s in Germany, observed over expected was 2.26 for record highs of the daily maximum, 0.13 for record lows of the daily maximum, 1.78 for record highs of the daily minimum, 0.34 for record lows of the daily minimum.
In 2026 (to 2026-10-16), record highs ran at 3.11 times the expected number in Germany and record lows at 0.18 times.
Expected counts assume a stable climate: the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k.
Readings are whole tenths of a degree and ties are not records, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. This page compares with the 1951-1980 level and not with 1.

How to Read This Page

In a stable climate, the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k. Adding that chance up over every station, day and year gives the number of daily records expected without any change. The site records a station's records from its 31st year of data, so a station-year counts from there.

Readings are whole tenths of a degree, and a tie is not a record, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. For that reason the charts compare observed over expected with the 1951-1980 level (0.97 for record highs and 0.95 for record lows in this data), drawn as a dashed line, and not with 1.

Record highs and record lows combine the daily maximum and the daily minimum temperature. The level for each is the average of the two levels in the data. A value above the dashed line means more records than in 1951-1980; below it means fewer. The numbers show what was observed and how it compares. They do not say why.

Observed Over Expected by Year

Highs and lows

Record highs

Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in Germany, for each year from 1909 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 0.97.

Observed over expected record highs by year, Germany
Year	record highs observed over expected
1909	0.69
1910	0.68
1911	1.71
1912	1.25
1913	1.36
1914	0.87
1915	1.21
1916	1.13
1917	0.98
1918	1.28
1919	0.94
1920	1.71
1921	2.11
1922	0.83
1923	1.43
1924	0.49
1925	1.13
1926	1.39
1927	0.92
1928	0.97
1929	1.12
1930	1.37
1931	0.59
1932	1.44
1933	0.80
1934	1.35
1935	1.08
1936	0.82
1937	0.94
1938	1.74
1939	1.33
1940	0.40
1941	0.72
1942	1.14
1943	1.59
1944	1.32
1945	1.85
1946	1.10
1947	2.56
1948	1.94
1949	1.62
1950	1.09
1951	0.77
1952	1.12
1953	1.71
1954	0.77
1955	0.77
1956	0.54
1957	1.62
1958	0.98
1959	1.36
1960	0.98
1961	2.15
1962	0.83
1963	0.78
1964	1.14
1965	0.40
1966	1.55
1967	1.28
1968	1.32
1969	0.92
1970	0.42
1971	0.96
1972	0.76
1973	0.60
1974	1.46
1975	1.17
1976	1.12
1977	1.16
1978	0.60
1979	0.92
1980	0.85
1981	1.14
1982	1.01
1983	1.72
1984	0.46
1985	0.91
1986	0.86
1987	1.13
1988	0.85
1989	2.29
1990	2.18
1991	1.08
1992	1.27
1993	1.67
1994	2.08
1995	1.35
1996	0.62
1997	1.46
1998	2.04
1999	1.41
2000	1.75
2001	1.17
2002	1.96
2003	2.07
2004	1.03
2005	1.78
2006	2.32
2007	1.96
2008	0.92
2009	0.95
2010	1.05
2011	1.44
2012	1.54
2013	1.27
2014	1.40
2015	2.84
2016	1.36
2017	1.24
2018	2.42
2019	1.90
2020	1.79
2021	1.43
2022	2.10
2023	2.03
2024	2.43
2025	1.59
2026	3.11

Record lows

Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in Germany, for each year from 1909 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 0.95.

Observed over expected record lows by year, Germany
Year	record lows observed over expected
1909	0.74
1910	0.43
1911	0.63
1912	1.40
1913	0.95
1914	0.68
1915	0.66
1916	0.35
1917	0.80
1918	0.70
1919	1.68
1920	0.80
1921	0.87
1922	1.19
1923	1.11
1924	0.72
1925	0.95
1926	0.42
1927	0.98
1928	1.13
1929	2.35
1930	0.21
1931	1.16
1932	0.34
1933	0.95
1934	0.21
1935	0.70
1936	0.87
1937	0.37
1938	1.16
1939	0.79
1940	2.61
1941	2.03
1942	1.99
1943	0.30
1944	0.63
1945	0.66
1946	0.61
1947	1.38
1948	0.61
1949	0.79
1950	0.32
1951	0.46
1952	0.87
1953	0.47
1954	0.93
1955	1.16
1956	2.24
1957	0.95
1958	0.66
1959	0.52
1960	0.71
1961	0.84
1962	1.88
1963	1.19
1964	0.71
1965	1.31
1966	0.70
1967	0.50
1968	0.76
1969	1.13
1970	0.69
1971	1.39
1972	0.86
1973	0.91
1974	0.69
1975	0.55
1976	0.69
1977	0.72
1978	1.22
1979	0.94
1980	1.26
1981	0.88
1982	0.31
1983	0.67
1984	0.72
1985	1.58
1986	1.32
1987	1.37
1988	0.40
1989	0.47
1990	0.29
1991	0.78
1992	0.37
1993	1.19
1994	0.34
1995	0.55
1996	1.31
1997	0.64
1998	0.66
1999	0.17
2000	0.33
2001	0.53
2002	0.50
2003	0.71
2004	0.34
2005	0.62
2006	0.52
2007	0.37
2008	0.37
2009	0.53
2010	1.12
2011	0.34
2012	0.95
2013	1.35
2014	0.22
2015	0.40
2016	0.43
2017	0.29
2018	0.67
2019	0.28
2020	0.28
2021	0.34
2022	0.33
2023	0.17
2024	0.14
2025	0.22
2026	0.18

The charts start in 1909. 51 earlier years are left out because too few records were expected from the few stations with a long enough record. The data download has every year.

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Counts

Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in Germany for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give.

Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, Germany
Year	Record highs observed	Record highs expected	Record lows observed	Record lows expected
1909	161	233	172	233
1910	169	247	106	247
1911	535	313	197	313
1912	441	352	493	352
1913	464	341	324	341
1914	271	311	211	311
1915	367	303	200	303
1916	273	242	85	242
1917	249	254	202	254
1918	356	278	194	278
1919	322	341	574	341
1920	688	402	320	402
1921	1,070	508	444	508
1922	394	478	568	478
1923	687	482	534	482
1924	236	477	344	477
1925	503	446	424	446
1926	695	500	208	500
1927	469	508	497	508
1928	483	498	561	498
1929	540	484	1,137	484
1930	715	521	108	521
1931	298	503	583	503
1932	708	491	168	491
1933	389	488	463	488
1934	649	480	103	480
1935	519	480	338	480
1936	535	649	565	649
1937	617	654	241	654
1938	1,142	655	762	655
1939	874	655	519	655
1940	264	652	1,699	652
1941	420	586	1,191	586
1942	680	594	1,181	594
1943	985	619	184	619
1944	748	565	357	565
1945	438	237	155	237
1946	400	365	222	365
1947	1,448	566	783	566
1948	1,199	617	379	617
1949	1,072	662	521	662
1950	711	654	209	654
1951	506	658	304	658
1952	728	650	567	650
1953	1,127	660	308	660
1954	499	651	602	651
1955	502	650	753	650
1956	350	652	1,460	652
1957	1,071	663	632	663
1958	624	636	422	636
1959	897	661	341	661
1960	622	638	456	638
1961	1,374	640	537	640
1962	574	692	1,302	692
1963	518	660	789	660
1964	759	663	468	663
1965	250	630	826	630
1966	1,160	748	526	748
1967	1,195	933	463	933
1968	1,399	1,056	802	1,056
1969	1,183	1,289	1,455	1,289
1970	600	1,418	980	1,418
1971	1,561	1,622	2,258	1,622
1972	1,339	1,766	1,510	1,766
1973	1,112	1,847	1,680	1,847
1974	2,718	1,860	1,279	1,860
1975	2,410	2,063	1,143	2,063
1976	2,668	2,380	1,649	2,380
1977	4,189	3,621	2,608	3,621
1978	2,564	4,241	5,176	4,241
1979	4,252	4,598	4,327	4,598
1980	4,252	5,017	6,314	5,017
1981	6,427	5,650	4,952	5,650
1982	5,756	5,727	1,785	5,727
1983	10,241	5,941	3,975	5,941
1984	2,685	5,872	4,221	5,872
1985	5,265	5,764	9,091	5,764
1986	4,803	5,579	7,352	5,579
1987	6,195	5,493	7,525	5,493
1988	4,730	5,595	2,245	5,595
1989	12,576	5,482	2,576	5,482
1990	11,819	5,410	1,593	5,410
1991	5,757	5,340	4,171	5,340
1992	6,773	5,350	1,999	5,350
1993	8,956	5,347	6,384	5,347
1994	10,910	5,248	1,796	5,248
1995	7,042	5,200	2,845	5,200
1996	3,146	5,113	6,685	5,113
1997	7,236	4,951	3,146	4,951
1998	10,028	4,907	3,225	4,907
1999	6,740	4,774	821	4,774
2000	8,089	4,628	1,530	4,628
2001	5,275	4,519	2,386	4,519
2002	8,571	4,365	2,164	4,365
2003	8,580	4,142	2,955	4,142
2004	4,001	3,868	1,315	3,868
2005	6,951	3,902	2,421	3,902
2006	8,926	3,841	1,980	3,841
2007	7,229	3,688	1,351	3,688
2008	3,336	3,618	1,335	3,618
2009	3,438	3,605	1,894	3,605
2010	3,738	3,561	3,990	3,561
2011	5,094	3,548	1,197	3,548
2012	5,348	3,469	3,303	3,469
2013	4,346	3,412	4,621	3,412
2014	4,729	3,371	751	3,371
2015	9,635	3,388	1,348	3,388
2016	4,698	3,458	1,477	3,458
2017	4,354	3,505	1,027	3,505
2018	8,620	3,555	2,382	3,555
2019	6,593	3,462	969	3,462
2020	6,205	3,460	963	3,460
2021	5,043	3,517	1,181	3,517
2022	7,435	3,546	1,160	3,546
2023	7,345	3,615	624	3,615
2024	8,946	3,676	531	3,676
2025	5,898	3,703	809	3,703
2026	7,729	2,488	439	2,488

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Decade values in Germany: 1850s 0.78, 1860s 1.09, 1870s 1.09, 1880s 1.05, 1890s 1.17, 1900s 0.86, 1910s 1.16, 1920s 1.21, 1930s 1.16, 1940s 1.40, 1950s 1.07, 1960s 1.14, 1970s 0.92, 1980s 1.12, 1990s 1.52, 2000s 1.60, 2010s 1.65, 2020s 2.02. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 0.97.

Observed over expected record highs by decade, Germany
Decade	record highs observed over expected
1850s	0.78
1860s	1.09
1870s	1.09
1880s	1.05
1890s	1.17
1900s	0.86
1910s	1.16
1920s	1.21
1930s	1.16
1940s	1.40
1950s	1.07
1960s	1.14
1970s	0.92
1980s	1.12
1990s	1.52
2000s	1.60
2010s	1.65
2020s	2.02

Record lows

Decade values in Germany: 1850s 0.96, 1860s 1.03, 1870s 0.80, 1880s 1.16, 1890s 0.59, 1900s 0.73, 1910s 0.87, 1920s 1.05, 1930s 0.69, 1940s 1.22, 1950s 0.86, 1960s 0.96, 1970s 0.89, 1980s 0.89, 1990s 0.63, 2000s 0.48, 2010s 0.61, 2020s 0.24. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 0.95.

Observed over expected record lows by decade, Germany
Decade	record lows observed over expected
1850s	0.96
1860s	1.03
1870s	0.80
1880s	1.16
1890s	0.59
1900s	0.73
1910s	0.87
1920s	1.05
1930s	0.69
1940s	1.22
1950s	0.86
1960s	0.96
1970s	0.89
1980s	0.89
1990s	0.63
2000s	0.48
2010s	0.61
2020s	0.24

Observed and expected daily temperature records by decade, Germany
Decade	Highs observed	Highs expected	Highs observed over expected	Lows observed	Lows expected	Lows observed over expected
1850s	102	131	0.78	126	131	0.96
1860s	192	177	1.09	182	177	1.03
1870s	89	82	1.09	65	82	0.80
1880s	170	162	1.05	187	162	1.16
1890s	511	438	1.17	257	438	0.59
1900s	630	729	0.86	532	729	0.73
1910s	3,447	2,982	1.16	2,586	2,982	0.87
1920s	5,765	4,782	1.21	5,037	4,782	1.05
1930s	6,446	5,578	1.16	3,850	5,578	0.69
1940s	7,654	5,464	1.40	6,672	5,464	1.22
1950s	7,015	6,533	1.07	5,598	6,533	0.86
1960s	9,034	7,948	1.14	7,624	7,948	0.96
1970s	23,413	25,416	0.92	22,610	25,416	0.89
1980s	62,930	56,121	1.12	50,036	56,121	0.89
1990s	78,407	51,640	1.52	32,665	51,640	0.63
2000s	64,396	40,177	1.60	19,331	40,177	0.48
2010s	57,155	34,728	1.65	21,065	34,728	0.61
2020s	48,601	24,003	2.02	5,707	24,003	0.24

By Record Type, 2020s

Against the 1951-1980 level

Observed and expected records by type in the 2020s, Germany, with the 1951-1980 level
Record type	Observed	Expected	Observed over expected	1951-1980 level
Record high maximum temperature	27,182	12,003	2.26	0.89
Record low maximum temperature	1,598	12,003	0.13	1.03
Record high minimum temperature	21,419	12,000	1.78	1.05
Record low minimum temperature	4,109	12,000	0.34	0.87

The 2020s are not over: this decade runs to 2026, up to 2026-10-16.

Download the Data

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily). Records are computed by World Extreme Weather Monitor and are not official NOAA products. (US Government open data (NOAA NCEI)) Data as of 2026-10-16. Observed records are computed by this site from daily maximum and minimum temperature. Expected counts assume a stable climate.

Weather Records Against Chance: Germany

Key Facts

How to Read This Page

Observed Over Expected by Year

Record highs

Record lows

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Record lows

By Record Type, 2020s

Download the Data

Related