Weather Records Against Chance: Sweden

In the 2020s, record highs ran at 2.02 times the number expected by chance in Sweden (1951-1980: 0.99) and record lows at 0.38 times (1951-1980: 1.01).

Data as of 2026-10-17. Last revised 17 October 2026 (2026-10-17).

Key Facts

In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 21,616 record highs of daily temperature were observed in Sweden against 10,707 expected by chance, 2.02 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 0.99.
In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 4,084 record lows of daily temperature were observed in Sweden against 10,707 expected by chance, 0.38 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 1.01.
By type in the 2020s in Sweden, observed over expected was 1.91 for record highs of the daily maximum, 0.36 for record lows of the daily maximum, 2.13 for record highs of the daily minimum, 0.41 for record lows of the daily minimum.
In 2026 (to 2026-10-17), record highs ran at 1.20 times the expected number in Sweden and record lows at 0.48 times.
Expected counts assume a stable climate: the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k.
Readings are whole tenths of a degree and ties are not records, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. This page compares with the 1951-1980 level and not with 1.

How to Read This Page

In a stable climate, the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k. Adding that chance up over every station, day and year gives the number of daily records expected without any change. The site records a station's records from its 31st year of data, so a station-year counts from there.

Readings are whole tenths of a degree, and a tie is not a record, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. For that reason the charts compare observed over expected with the 1951-1980 level (0.99 for record highs and 1.01 for record lows in this data), drawn as a dashed line, and not with 1.

Record highs and record lows combine the daily maximum and the daily minimum temperature. The level for each is the average of the two levels in the data. A value above the dashed line means more records than in 1951-1980; below it means fewer. The numbers show what was observed and how it compares. They do not say why.

Observed Over Expected by Year

Highs and lows

Record highs

Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in Sweden, for each year from 1912 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 0.99.

Observed over expected record highs by year, Sweden
Year	record highs observed over expected
1912	0.81
1913	1.01
1914	2.04
1915	0.21
1916	0.64
1917	0.79
1918	0.74
1919	0.52
1920	1.12
1921	1.23
1922	0.51
1923	0.52
1924	1.05
1925	1.35
1926	0.61
1927	0.76
1928	0.56
1929	1.13
1930	1.72
1931	0.66
1932	1.44
1933	1.13
1934	2.52
1935	1.17
1936	1.21
1937	1.86
1938	2.55
1939	1.56
1940	0.44
1941	1.01
1942	0.82
1943	1.31
1944	1.05
1945	1.21
1946	0.94
1947	1.63
1948	1.70
1949	1.73
1950	0.65
1951	0.96
1952	0.40
1953	1.70
1954	0.53
1955	1.08
1956	0.44
1957	0.97
1958	0.93
1959	1.80
1960	0.86
1961	2.31
1962	0.52
1963	0.67
1964	0.98
1965	0.50
1966	0.56
1967	0.73
1968	1.34
1969	0.83
1970	0.62
1971	1.38
1972	1.24
1973	1.10
1974	1.08
1975	2.19
1976	0.61
1977	0.77
1978	1.05
1979	0.53
1980	0.72
1981	0.80
1982	1.08
1983	1.47
1984	0.90
1985	0.39
1986	0.91
1987	0.53
1988	1.02
1989	3.11
1990	3.02
1991	1.06
1992	1.60
1993	1.26
1994	1.25
1995	1.12
1996	0.91
1997	1.83
1998	1.31
1999	1.64
2000	2.37
2001	1.01
2002	2.19
2003	1.54
2004	1.04
2005	1.85
2006	2.98
2007	2.02
2008	1.12
2009	1.02
2010	0.77
2011	1.95
2012	1.02
2013	1.51
2014	2.67
2015	2.01
2016	1.44
2017	0.75
2018	3.20
2019	1.94
2020	2.94
2021	1.42
2022	2.10
2023	1.31
2024	2.52
2025	2.84
2026	1.20

Record lows

Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in Sweden, for each year from 1912 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 1.01.

Observed over expected record lows by year, Sweden
Year	record lows observed over expected
1912	1.25
1913	0.54
1914	0.29
1915	1.70
1916	0.88
1917	1.13
1918	0.69
1919	1.08
1920	0.32
1921	0.60
1922	0.67
1923	0.98
1924	0.68
1925	0.96
1926	0.74
1927	0.90
1928	0.72
1929	1.01
1930	0.23
1931	0.83
1932	0.39
1933	0.34
1934	0.12
1935	0.41
1936	0.34
1937	0.38
1938	0.17
1939	0.43
1940	1.42
1941	2.10
1942	2.34
1943	0.35
1944	0.55
1945	0.34
1946	0.43
1947	1.17
1948	0.51
1949	0.51
1950	0.46
1951	0.69
1952	1.10
1953	0.33
1954	0.30
1955	1.45
1956	1.30
1957	0.85
1958	0.93
1959	0.44
1960	0.56
1961	0.28
1962	1.00
1963	0.76
1964	0.56
1965	1.53
1966	2.53
1967	0.69
1968	1.69
1969	1.08
1970	1.02
1971	1.33
1972	0.41
1973	1.41
1974	0.36
1975	0.48
1976	1.16
1977	1.06
1978	1.72
1979	1.12
1980	1.13
1981	1.39
1982	0.80
1983	0.36
1984	0.48
1985	1.62
1986	1.05
1987	2.09
1988	0.63
1989	0.47
1990	0.19
1991	0.40
1992	0.99
1993	0.80
1994	0.47
1995	0.96
1996	0.81
1997	0.40
1998	0.59
1999	0.48
2000	0.32
2001	0.66
2002	0.69
2003	0.52
2004	0.36
2005	0.27
2006	0.45
2007	0.33
2008	0.35
2009	0.42
2010	1.25
2011	0.21
2012	0.65
2013	0.43
2014	0.39
2015	0.20
2016	0.49
2017	0.42
2018	0.32
2019	0.43
2020	0.26
2021	0.35
2022	0.21
2023	0.66
2024	0.50
2025	0.19
2026	0.48

The charts start in 1912. 27 earlier years are left out because too few records were expected from the few stations with a long enough record. The data download has every year.

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Counts

Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in Sweden for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give.

Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, Sweden
Year	Record highs observed	Record highs expected	Record lows observed	Record lows expected
1912	387	478	596	478
1913	501	497	267	497
1914	1,055	518	149	518
1915	107	502	856	502
1916	311	490	430	490
1917	374	475	535	475
1918	350	474	327	474
1919	240	461	499	461
1920	502	450	143	450
1921	541	438	264	438
1922	226	446	297	446
1923	226	435	428	435
1924	470	449	304	449
1925	590	437	421	437
1926	262	427	318	427
1927	336	441	399	441
1928	250	444	318	444
1929	489	432	437	432
1930	790	459	107	459
1931	307	466	387	466
1932	676	469	182	469
1933	519	458	155	458
1934	1,128	448	55	448
1935	510	437	179	437
1936	521	431	148	431
1937	805	433	166	433
1938	1,174	460	80	460
1939	663	426	181	426
1940	185	418	594	418
1941	412	409	857	409
1942	328	401	940	401
1943	516	393	137	393
1944	408	387	212	387
1945	455	375	127	375
1946	368	392	169	392
1947	684	420	491	420
1948	722	424	215	424
1949	718	416	210	416
1950	253	389	180	389
1951	352	366	254	366
1952	155	390	427	390
1953	655	385	128	385
1954	227	425	128	425
1955	474	441	637	441
1956	199	455	591	455
1957	443	458	388	458
1958	429	462	429	462
1959	864	479	210	479
1960	538	627	350	627
1961	1,484	642	178	642
1962	334	639	638	639
1963	434	646	492	646
1964	573	586	326	586
1965	282	569	868	569
1966	313	560	1,417	560
1967	400	545	377	545
1968	713	533	902	533
1969	427	516	556	516
1970	314	507	517	507
1971	1,282	928	1,232	928
1972	1,219	987	403	987
1973	1,111	1,006	1,420	1,006
1974	1,144	1,061	387	1,061
1975	3,971	1,811	868	1,811
1976	1,159	1,911	2,216	1,911
1977	1,443	1,885	2,002	1,885
1978	1,904	1,821	3,130	1,821
1979	948	1,802	2,022	1,802
1980	1,246	1,741	1,965	1,741
1981	1,649	2,068	2,875	2,068
1982	2,360	2,181	1,746	2,181
1983	3,466	2,356	849	2,356
1984	2,036	2,260	1,074	2,260
1985	905	2,302	3,722	2,302
1986	2,034	2,226	2,332	2,226
1987	1,189	2,235	4,669	2,235
1988	2,269	2,217	1,400	2,217
1989	7,010	2,253	1,060	2,253
1990	6,589	2,184	414	2,184
1991	2,528	2,376	961	2,376
1992	3,853	2,406	2,376	2,406
1993	2,930	2,327	1,868	2,327
1994	2,891	2,307	1,090	2,307
1995	2,678	2,390	2,284	2,390
1996	1,907	2,106	1,703	2,106
1997	3,751	2,049	815	2,049
1998	2,487	1,899	1,118	1,899
1999	3,201	1,952	929	1,952
2000	4,754	2,008	645	2,008
2001	2,153	2,130	1,403	2,130
2002	4,540	2,075	1,432	2,075
2003	3,157	2,054	1,067	2,054
2004	2,105	2,030	738	2,030
2005	3,434	1,852	491	1,852
2006	5,582	1,870	837	1,870
2007	3,730	1,851	615	1,851
2008	2,129	1,894	665	1,894
2009	1,784	1,749	737	1,749
2010	1,368	1,776	2,219	1,776
2011	3,473	1,785	369	1,785
2012	1,675	1,636	1,070	1,636
2013	2,344	1,557	669	1,557
2014	3,979	1,490	588	1,490
2015	2,914	1,449	287	1,449
2016	2,147	1,495	734	1,495
2017	1,110	1,476	622	1,476
2018	4,471	1,398	441	1,398
2019	2,831	1,461	630	1,461
2020	4,458	1,516	392	1,516
2021	2,147	1,508	529	1,508
2022	3,118	1,484	309	1,484
2023	1,887	1,437	942	1,437
2024	3,695	1,466	739	1,466
2025	4,088	1,438	273	1,438
2026	2,223	1,858	900	1,858

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Decade values in Sweden: 1880s 1.17, 1890s 1.12, 1900s 1.16, 1910s 0.86, 1920s 0.88, 1930s 1.58, 1940s 1.19, 1950s 0.95, 1960s 0.94, 1970s 1.06, 1980s 1.11, 1990s 1.49, 2000s 1.71, 2010s 1.70, 2020s 2.02. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 0.99.

Observed over expected record highs by decade, Sweden
Decade	record highs observed over expected
1880s	1.17
1890s	1.12
1900s	1.16
1910s	0.86
1920s	0.88
1930s	1.58
1940s	1.19
1950s	0.95
1960s	0.94
1970s	1.06
1980s	1.11
1990s	1.49
2000s	1.71
2010s	1.70
2020s	2.02

Record lows

Decade values in Sweden: 1880s 1.19, 1890s 0.75, 1900s 0.55, 1910s 0.94, 1920s 0.76, 1930s 0.37, 1940s 0.98, 1950s 0.79, 1960s 1.04, 1970s 1.04, 1980s 0.99, 1990s 0.62, 2000s 0.44, 2010s 0.49, 2020s 0.38. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 1.01.

Observed over expected record lows by decade, Sweden
Decade	record lows observed over expected
1880s	1.19
1890s	0.75
1900s	0.55
1910s	0.94
1920s	0.76
1930s	0.37
1940s	0.98
1950s	0.79
1960s	1.04
1970s	1.04
1980s	0.99
1990s	0.62
2000s	0.44
2010s	0.49
2020s	0.38

Observed and expected daily temperature records by decade, Sweden
Decade	Highs observed	Highs expected	Highs observed over expected	Lows observed	Lows expected	Lows observed over expected
1880s	65	55	1.17	66	55	1.19
1890s	101	90	1.12	67	90	0.75
1900s	84	73	1.16	40	73	0.55
1910s	3,343	3,907	0.86	3,668	3,907	0.94
1920s	3,892	4,399	0.88	3,329	4,399	0.76
1930s	7,093	4,484	1.58	1,640	4,484	0.37
1940s	4,796	4,035	1.19	3,952	4,035	0.98
1950s	4,051	4,250	0.95	3,372	4,250	0.79
1960s	5,498	5,863	0.94	6,104	5,863	1.04
1970s	14,495	13,717	1.06	14,197	13,717	1.04
1980s	24,164	21,838	1.11	21,692	21,838	0.99
1990s	32,815	21,996	1.49	13,558	21,996	0.62
2000s	33,368	19,513	1.71	8,630	19,513	0.44
2010s	26,312	15,522	1.70	7,629	15,522	0.49
2020s	21,616	10,707	2.02	4,084	10,707	0.38

By Record Type, 2020s

Against the 1951-1980 level

Observed and expected records by type in the 2020s, Sweden, with the 1951-1980 level
Record type	Observed	Expected	Observed over expected	1951-1980 level
Record high maximum temperature	10,267	5,387	1.91	0.94
Record low maximum temperature	1,924	5,387	0.36	1.05
Record high minimum temperature	11,349	5,320	2.13	1.04
Record low minimum temperature	2,160	5,320	0.41	0.98

The 2020s are not over: this decade runs to 2026, up to 2026-10-17.

Download the Data

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily). Records are computed by World Extreme Weather Monitor and are not official NOAA products. (US Government open data (NOAA NCEI)) Data as of 2026-10-17. Observed records are computed by this site from daily maximum and minimum temperature. Expected counts assume a stable climate.

Weather Records Against Chance: Sweden

Key Facts

How to Read This Page

Observed Over Expected by Year

Record highs

Record lows

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Record lows

By Record Type, 2020s

Download the Data

Related