Weather Records Against Chance: United Kingdom

In the 2020s, record highs ran at 2.63 times the number expected by chance in United Kingdom (1951-1980: 0.88) and record lows at 0.31 times (1951-1980: 0.80).

Data as of 2026-10-17. Last revised 17 October 2026 (2026-10-17).

Key Facts

In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 11,500 record highs of daily temperature were observed in United Kingdom against 4,369 expected by chance, 2.63 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 0.88.
In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 1,355 record lows of daily temperature were observed in United Kingdom against 4,369 expected by chance, 0.31 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 0.80.
By type in the 2020s in United Kingdom, observed over expected was 2.64 for record highs of the daily maximum, 0.19 for record lows of the daily maximum, 2.62 for record highs of the daily minimum, 0.44 for record lows of the daily minimum.
In 2026 (to 2026-10-17), record highs ran at 4.72 times the expected number in United Kingdom and record lows at 0.08 times.
Expected counts assume a stable climate: the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k.
Readings are whole tenths of a degree and ties are not records, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. This page compares with the 1951-1980 level and not with 1.

How to Read This Page

In a stable climate, the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k. Adding that chance up over every station, day and year gives the number of daily records expected without any change. The site records a station's records from its 31st year of data, so a station-year counts from there.

Readings are whole tenths of a degree, and a tie is not a record, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. For that reason the charts compare observed over expected with the 1951-1980 level (0.88 for record highs and 0.80 for record lows in this data), drawn as a dashed line, and not with 1.

Record highs and record lows combine the daily maximum and the daily minimum temperature. The level for each is the average of the two levels in the data. A value above the dashed line means more records than in 1951-1980; below it means fewer. The numbers show what was observed and how it compares. They do not say why.

Observed Over Expected by Year

Highs and lows

Record highs

Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in United Kingdom, for each year from 1960 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 0.88.

Observed over expected record highs by year, United Kingdom
Year	record highs observed over expected
1960	0.73
1961	1.04
1962	0.22
1963	0.44
1964	0.59
1965	0.53
1966	0.51
1967	0.51
1968	0.68
1969	1.16
1970	0.87
1971	1.27
1972	0.47
1973	0.66
1974	0.69
1975	1.63
1976	2.03
1977	0.93
1978	1.20
1979	0.91
1980	1.00
1981	0.79
1982	1.00
1983	1.49
1984	0.93
1985	1.03
1986	0.52
1987	1.22
1988	0.79
1989	2.36
1990	2.42
1991	1.06
1992	1.09
1993	0.82
1994	1.28
1995	2.14
1996	0.77
1997	1.87
1998	2.04
1999	1.54
2000	1.27
2001	1.10
2002	1.53
2003	2.11
2004	1.45
2005	2.22
2006	2.34
2007	1.87
2008	1.38
2009	0.99
2010	0.61
2011	2.54
2012	1.61
2013	1.17
2014	1.46
2015	2.14
2016	1.82
2017	2.02
2018	1.79
2019	1.88
2020	2.06
2021	1.90
2022	2.64
2023	2.73
2024	2.25
2025	3.29
2026	4.72

Record lows

Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in United Kingdom, for each year from 1960 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 0.80.

Observed over expected record lows by year, United Kingdom
Year	record lows observed over expected
1960	0.34
1961	0.75
1962	1.67
1963	1.43
1964	0.86
1965	1.09
1966	0.89
1967	0.54
1968	0.77
1969	0.94
1970	0.61
1971	0.54
1972	0.60
1973	0.92
1974	0.52
1975	0.66
1976	0.48
1977	0.71
1978	0.99
1979	1.35
1980	0.89
1981	1.65
1982	0.94
1983	0.41
1984	0.50
1985	1.29
1986	1.32
1987	0.93
1988	0.36
1989	0.41
1990	0.30
1991	0.76
1992	0.62
1993	1.16
1994	0.47
1995	0.73
1996	0.89
1997	0.57
1998	0.45
1999	0.35
2000	0.34
2001	0.45
2002	0.31
2003	0.47
2004	0.54
2005	0.40
2006	0.35
2007	0.41
2008	0.46
2009	0.51
2010	2.20
2011	0.36
2012	0.73
2013	1.09
2014	0.13
2015	0.41
2016	0.29
2017	0.21
2018	0.73
2019	0.32
2020	0.30
2021	0.49
2022	0.43
2023	0.26
2024	0.33
2025	0.13
2026	0.08

The charts start in 1960. 115 earlier years are left out because too few records were expected from the few stations with a long enough record. The data download has every year.

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Counts

Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in United Kingdom for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give.

Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, United Kingdom
Year	Record highs observed	Record highs expected	Record lows observed	Record lows expected
1960	183	251	86	251
1961	279	269	203	269
1962	59	263	440	263
1963	115	259	370	259
1964	149	252	216	252
1965	131	247	269	247
1966	124	242	216	242
1967	123	239	130	239
1968	157	230	176	230
1969	266	229	215	229
1970	197	226	137	226
1971	282	222	120	222
1972	104	219	131	219
1973	142	214	198	214
1974	146	212	110	212
1975	340	209	138	209
1976	464	229	110	229
1977	207	222	157	222
1978	263	219	217	219
1979	219	241	326	241
1980	236	236	209	236
1981	182	229	379	229
1982	227	227	214	227
1983	317	213	88	213
1984	224	242	122	242
1985	238	231	298	231
1986	118	226	299	226
1987	271	221	205	221
1988	174	219	79	219
1989	531	225	93	225
1990	3,641	1,504	458	1,504
1991	1,789	1,683	1,274	1,683
1992	1,819	1,670	1,042	1,670
1993	1,319	1,614	1,875	1,614
1994	2,044	1,596	750	1,596
1995	3,334	1,559	1,143	1,559
1996	1,195	1,544	1,380	1,544
1997	2,825	1,511	855	1,511
1998	3,007	1,471	656	1,471
1999	2,208	1,432	506	1,432
2000	1,772	1,393	474	1,393
2001	1,517	1,374	622	1,374
2002	2,068	1,355	417	1,355
2003	2,930	1,392	651	1,392
2004	1,920	1,324	720	1,324
2005	2,696	1,213	480	1,213
2006	2,669	1,139	395	1,139
2007	2,016	1,078	447	1,078
2008	1,450	1,052	486	1,052
2009	1,071	1,082	552	1,082
2010	679	1,109	2,441	1,109
2011	2,758	1,086	387	1,086
2012	1,689	1,052	773	1,052
2013	1,004	859	934	859
2014	1,417	972	129	972
2015	2,010	937	386	937
2016	1,522	838	240	838
2017	1,524	754	158	754
2018	1,314	735	536	735
2019	1,383	735	232	735
2020	1,424	691	206	691
2021	1,259	663	324	663
2022	1,929	731	317	731
2023	1,942	712	188	712
2024	1,536	683	223	683
2025	1,816	552	71	552
2026	1,594	338	26	338

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Decade values in United Kingdom: 1840s 1.41, 1850s 1.11, 1860s 1.39, 1870s 0.82, 1880s 0.81, 1890s 1.12, 1900s 0.94, 1910s 0.95, 1920s 1.11, 1930s 1.23, 1940s 1.29, 1950s 0.93, 1960s 0.64, 1970s 1.07, 1980s 1.11, 1990s 1.49, 2000s 1.62, 2010s 1.69, 2020s 2.63. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 0.88.

Observed over expected record highs by decade, United Kingdom
Decade	record highs observed over expected
1840s	1.41
1850s	1.11
1860s	1.39
1870s	0.82
1880s	0.81
1890s	1.12
1900s	0.94
1910s	0.95
1920s	1.11
1930s	1.23
1940s	1.29
1950s	0.93
1960s	0.64
1970s	1.07
1980s	1.11
1990s	1.49
2000s	1.62
2010s	1.69
2020s	2.63

Record lows

Decade values in United Kingdom: 1840s 0.93, 1850s 0.84, 1860s 0.62, 1870s 1.14, 1880s 1.48, 1890s 1.21, 1900s 0.82, 1910s 0.83, 1920s 0.75, 1930s 0.41, 1940s 0.76, 1950s 0.65, 1960s 0.94, 1970s 0.74, 1980s 0.88, 1990s 0.64, 2000s 0.42, 2010s 0.68, 2020s 0.31. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 0.80.

Observed over expected record lows by decade, United Kingdom
Decade	record lows observed over expected
1840s	0.93
1850s	0.84
1860s	0.62
1870s	1.14
1880s	1.48
1890s	1.21
1900s	0.82
1910s	0.83
1920s	0.75
1930s	0.41
1940s	0.76
1950s	0.65
1960s	0.94
1970s	0.74
1980s	0.88
1990s	0.64
2000s	0.42
2010s	0.68
2020s	0.31

Observed and expected daily temperature records by decade, United Kingdom
Decade	Highs observed	Highs expected	Highs observed over expected	Lows observed	Lows expected	Lows observed over expected
1840s	154	110	1.41	102	110	0.93
1850s	199	179	1.11	150	179	0.84
1860s	199	143	1.39	89	143	0.62
1870s	204	250	0.82	286	250	1.14
1880s	227	280	0.81	413	280	1.48
1890s	260	232	1.12	280	232	1.21
1900s	328	348	0.94	284	348	0.82
1910s	804	844	0.95	701	844	0.83
1920s	859	774	1.11	578	774	0.75
1930s	1,470	1,192	1.23	493	1,192	0.41
1940s	2,690	2,082	1.29	1,582	2,082	0.76
1950s	2,015	2,171	0.93	1,402	2,171	0.65
1960s	1,586	2,482	0.64	2,321	2,482	0.94
1970s	2,364	2,213	1.07	1,644	2,213	0.74
1980s	2,518	2,269	1.11	1,986	2,269	0.88
1990s	23,181	15,585	1.49	9,939	15,585	0.64
2000s	20,109	12,401	1.62	5,244	12,401	0.42
2010s	15,300	9,079	1.69	6,216	9,079	0.68
2020s	11,500	4,369	2.63	1,355	4,369	0.31

By Record Type, 2020s

Against the 1951-1980 level

Observed and expected records by type in the 2020s, United Kingdom, with the 1951-1980 level
Record type	Observed	Expected	Observed over expected	1951-1980 level
Record high maximum temperature	5,871	2,224	2.64	0.88
Record low maximum temperature	421	2,224	0.19	0.78
Record high minimum temperature	5,629	2,146	2.62	0.87
Record low minimum temperature	934	2,146	0.44	0.82

The 2020s are not over: this decade runs to 2026, up to 2026-10-17.

Download the Data

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily). Records are computed by World Extreme Weather Monitor and are not official NOAA products. (US Government open data (NOAA NCEI)) Data as of 2026-10-17. Observed records are computed by this site from daily maximum and minimum temperature. Expected counts assume a stable climate.

Weather Records Against Chance: United Kingdom

Key Facts

How to Read This Page

Observed Over Expected by Year

Record highs

Record lows

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Record lows

By Record Type, 2020s

Download the Data

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