Daily records
Page built 2026-10-15
Data as of 2026-10-14
Search
Built 2026-10-15 (15 October 2026)

Weather Records Against Chance: Mexico

In the 2020s, record highs ran at 5.11 times the number expected by chance in Mexico (1951-1980: 0.67) and record lows at 0.94 times (1951-1980: 0.92).

Data as of . Last revised (2026-10-14).

Key Facts

  • In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-14), 8,033 record highs of daily temperature were observed in Mexico against 1,573 expected by chance, 5.11 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 0.67.
  • In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-14), 1,482 record lows of daily temperature were observed in Mexico against 1,573 expected by chance, 0.94 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 0.92.
  • By type in the 2020s in Mexico, observed over expected was 5.01 for record highs of the daily maximum, 0.84 for record lows of the daily maximum, 5.22 for record highs of the daily minimum, 1.06 for record lows of the daily minimum.
  • In 2026 (to 2026-10-14), record highs ran at 120.00 times the expected number in Mexico and record lows at 49.42 times.
  • Expected counts assume a stable climate: the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k.
  • Readings are whole tenths of a degree and ties are not records, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. This page compares with the 1951-1980 level and not with 1.

How to Read This Page

In a stable climate, the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k. Adding that chance up over every station, day and year gives the number of daily records expected without any change. The site records a station's records from its 31st year of data, so a station-year counts from there.

Readings are whole tenths of a degree, and a tie is not a record, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. For that reason the charts compare observed over expected with the 1951-1980 level (0.67 for record highs and 0.92 for record lows in this data), drawn as a dashed line, and not with 1.

Record highs and record lows combine the daily maximum and the daily minimum temperature. The level for each is the average of the two levels in the data. A value above the dashed line means more records than in 1951-1980; below it means fewer. The numbers show what was observed and how it compares. They do not say why.

Observed Over Expected by Year

Highs and lows

Record highs

Observed over expected record highs by year, Mexico Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in Mexico, for each year from 2015 to 2026. 0.0 37.5 75.0 112.5 150.0 201520172019202120232025
Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in Mexico, for each year from 2015 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 0.67.
Observed over expected record highs by year, Mexico
Yearrecord highs observed over expected
20153.34
20162.84
20172.27
20182.21
20192.72
20203.57
20212.28
20221.83
20237.21
20245.23
20254.41
2026120.00

Record lows

Observed over expected record lows by year, Mexico Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in Mexico, for each year from 2015 to 2026. 0.0 12.5 25.0 37.5 50.0 201520172019202120232025
Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in Mexico, for each year from 2015 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 0.92.
Observed over expected record lows by year, Mexico
Yearrecord lows observed over expected
20150.26
20160.40
20170.33
20180.45
20190.36
20200.36
20210.48
20220.54
20230.36
20240.29
20250.81
202649.42

The charts start in 2015. 73 earlier years are left out because too few records were expected from the few stations with a long enough record. The data download has every year.

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Counts
Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, Mexico Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in Mexico for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 201520172019202120232025
Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in Mexico for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give.
Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, Mexico
YearRecord highs observedRecord highs expectedRecord lows observedRecord lows expected
201570421155211
201663722490224
201756024781247
2018512231105231
201974027298272
202094626596265
2021583256123256
2022450247134247
20231,49720875208
20241,44527681276
20251,354307249307
20261,7581572415

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Observed over expected record highs by decade, Mexico Decade values in Mexico: 1940s 0.52, 1950s 0.71, 1960s 0.63, 1970s 0.64, 1980s 0.87, 1990s 1.12, 2000s 1.09, 2010s 1.04, 2020s 5.11. The 2020s run to 2026. 0.0 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.0 1940s1950s1960s1970s1980s1990s2000s2010s2020s
Decade values in Mexico: 1940s 0.52, 1950s 0.71, 1960s 0.63, 1970s 0.64, 1980s 0.87, 1990s 1.12, 2000s 1.09, 2010s 1.04, 2020s 5.11. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 0.67.
Observed over expected record highs by decade, Mexico
Decaderecord highs observed over expected
1940s0.52
1950s0.71
1960s0.63
1970s0.64
1980s0.87
1990s1.12
2000s1.09
2010s1.04
2020s5.11

Record lows

Observed over expected record lows by decade, Mexico Decade values in Mexico: 1940s 0.50, 1950s 0.97, 1960s 0.88, 1970s 0.96, 1980s 0.91, 1990s 0.85, 2000s 0.85, 2010s 1.09, 2020s 0.94. The 2020s run to 2026. 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1940s1950s1960s1970s1980s1990s2000s2010s2020s
Decade values in Mexico: 1940s 0.50, 1950s 0.97, 1960s 0.88, 1970s 0.96, 1980s 0.91, 1990s 0.85, 2000s 0.85, 2010s 1.09, 2020s 0.94. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 0.92.
Observed over expected record lows by decade, Mexico
Decaderecord lows observed over expected
1940s0.50
1950s0.97
1960s0.88
1970s0.96
1980s0.91
1990s0.85
2000s0.85
2010s1.09
2020s0.94
Observed and expected daily temperature records by decade, Mexico
DecadeHighs observedHighs expectedHighs observed over expectedLows observedLows expectedLows observed over expected
1940s1021960.52981960.50
1950s3,8295,3590.715,1805,3590.97
1960s10,03715,9340.6314,03515,9340.88
1970s27,95043,3920.6441,53643,3920.96
1980s78,95590,7700.8782,46390,7700.91
1990s178,841159,0551.12135,716159,0550.85
2000s204,497187,2581.09159,050187,2580.85
2010s52,31650,2861.0454,74050,2861.09
2020s8,0331,5735.111,4821,5730.94

By Record Type, 2020s

Against the 1951-1980 level
Observed and expected records by type in the 2020s, Mexico, with the 1951-1980 level
Record typeObservedExpectedObserved over expected1951-1980 level
Record high maximum temperature4,1558305.010.69
Record low maximum temperature6968300.840.95
Record high minimum temperature3,8787435.220.66
Record low minimum temperature7867431.060.90

The 2020s are not over: this decade runs to 2026, up to 2026-10-14.

Download the Data

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily). Records are computed by World Extreme Weather Monitor and are not official NOAA products. (US Government open data (NOAA NCEI)) Data as of 2026-10-14. Observed records are computed by this site from daily maximum and minimum temperature. Expected counts assume a stable climate.