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Data as of 2026-10-17
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Built 2026-10-19 (19 October 2026)

Weather Records Against Chance: Kazakhstan

In the 2020s, record highs ran at 2.68 times the number expected by chance in Kazakhstan (1951-1980: 1.13) and record lows at 0.54 times (1951-1980: 0.92).

Data as of . Last revised (2026-10-17).

Key Facts

  • In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 8,295 record highs of daily temperature were observed in Kazakhstan against 3,098 expected by chance, 2.68 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 1.13.
  • In the 2020s so far (to 2026-10-17), 1,686 record lows of daily temperature were observed in Kazakhstan against 3,098 expected by chance, 0.54 times the expected number. In 1951-1980 the same measure was 0.92.
  • By type in the 2020s in Kazakhstan, observed over expected was 2.02 for record highs of the daily maximum, 0.55 for record lows of the daily maximum, 3.69 for record highs of the daily minimum, 0.53 for record lows of the daily minimum.
  • In 2026 (to 2026-10-17), record highs ran at 4.16 times the expected number in Kazakhstan and record lows at 0.41 times.
  • Expected counts assume a stable climate: the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k.
  • Readings are whole tenths of a degree and ties are not records, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. This page compares with the 1951-1980 level and not with 1.

How to Read This Page

In a stable climate, the k-th year of a station's record sets a record on a given day with chance 1 in k. Adding that chance up over every station, day and year gives the number of daily records expected without any change. The site records a station's records from its 31st year of data, so a station-year counts from there.

Readings are whole tenths of a degree, and a tie is not a record, so strict records run below the naive expectation even without a trend. For that reason the charts compare observed over expected with the 1951-1980 level (1.13 for record highs and 0.92 for record lows in this data), drawn as a dashed line, and not with 1.

Record highs and record lows combine the daily maximum and the daily minimum temperature. The level for each is the average of the two levels in the data. A value above the dashed line means more records than in 1951-1980; below it means fewer. The numbers show what was observed and how it compares. They do not say why.

Observed Over Expected by Year

Highs and lows

Record highs

Observed over expected record highs by year, Kazakhstan Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in Kazakhstan, for each year from 1951 to 2026. 0.0 1.3 2.5 3.8 5.0 1951195919671975198319911999200720152023
Daily temperature record highs observed divided by the number expected by chance in Kazakhstan, for each year from 1951 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 1.13.
Observed over expected record highs by year, Kazakhstan
Yearrecord highs observed over expected
19511.43
19521.27
19531.07
19540.71
19551.48
19560.67
19571.07
19581.03
19590.61
19600.55
19611.37
19621.81
19631.62
19640.48
19651.27
19661.37
19670.95
19681.15
19690.72
19700.81
19711.40
19720.77
19730.84
19741.28
19751.80
19761.05
19771.47
19781.12
19791.48
19801.04
19811.30
19821.46
19831.82
19840.92
19850.59
19860.87
19871.26
19881.21
19891.26
19901.70
19911.60
19920.69
19930.96
19940.95
19951.94
19960.92
19972.15
19981.63
19992.13
20001.45
20012.09
20023.05
20031.51
20042.06
20051.45
20062.06
20071.91
20082.90
20090.72
20102.21
20110.96
20122.11
20131.69
20141.51
20151.78
20161.61
20171.21
20180.69
20191.48
20202.25
20212.29
20221.84
20233.05
20241.40
20254.07
20264.16

Record lows

Observed over expected record lows by year, Kazakhstan Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in Kazakhstan, for each year from 1951 to 2026. 0.0 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.5 1951195919671975198319911999200720152023
Daily temperature record lows observed divided by the number expected by chance in Kazakhstan, for each year from 1951 to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 0.92.
Observed over expected record lows by year, Kazakhstan
Yearrecord lows observed over expected
19511.23
19521.12
19530.97
19541.65
19550.95
19560.77
19570.87
19581.07
19590.72
19601.58
19610.52
19620.34
19630.65
19640.68
19650.56
19660.95
19670.50
19681.14
19692.35
19700.64
19710.65
19721.35
19730.84
19740.73
19750.47
19761.79
19770.41
19780.74
19790.71
19800.72
19810.35
19820.44
19830.35
19840.76
19850.53
19860.50
19871.20
19880.30
19890.49
19900.16
19910.31
19920.93
19931.41
19940.94
19950.35
19960.66
19970.54
19980.79
19990.93
20000.49
20010.42
20020.72
20030.69
20040.38
20050.41
20060.94
20070.49
20080.76
20090.60
20100.71
20110.87
20121.05
20130.35
20141.42
20150.72
20160.81
20170.46
20180.77
20190.69
20200.56
20210.77
20220.61
20230.66
20240.49
20250.28
20260.41

The charts start in 1951. 27 earlier years are left out because too few records were expected from the few stations with a long enough record. The data download has every year.

Observed and Expected Records by Year

Counts
Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, Kazakhstan Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in Kazakhstan for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 19511961197119811991200120112021
Daily temperature records observed and expected by chance in Kazakhstan for each year, highs and lows. Expected counts are the number a stable climate would give.
Observed and expected record highs and lows by year, Kazakhstan
YearRecord highs observedRecord highs expectedRecord lows observedRecord lows expected
1951288202247202
1952280220246220
1953231216209216
1954157220364220
1955365246233246
1956179268206268
1957281262228262
1958264256275256
1959167274198274
1960148268423268
1961390284149284
196249927693276
1963487301195301
1964143300204300
1965373293163293
1966489356338356
1967333349175349
1968430375428375
1969298412967412
1970329405257405
1971554396258396
1972299387523387
1973317377318377
1974472370271370
1975649362169362
1976375356636356
1977528360146360
1978395353260353
1979513346244346
1980365352252352
1981449344121344
1982493338150338
1983602332116332
1984300326247326
1985190319169319
1986275314158314
1987390309370309
198837030592305
1989378299147299
199051530349303
199148330293302
1992213309287309
1993305317447317
1994311328307328
1995651335117335
1996321347230347
1997753351188351
1998553340267340
1999734345321345
2000509350173350
2001847406169406
20021,307428308428
2003639422292422
20041,014492187492
2005782538218538
2006991482455482
2007807422207422
20081,233425323425
2009314434259434
2010929421301421
2011405422368422
2012955453475453
2013745441153441
2014658434617434
2015775435315435
2016737458372458
2017563465212465
2018301439339439
2019670451310451
20201,044465260465
20211,072468363468
2022860467283467
20231,384454298454
2024604433211433
20251,918471131471
20261,413340140340

Observed Over Expected by Decade

Record highs

Observed over expected record highs by decade, Kazakhstan Decade values in Kazakhstan: 1920s 0.80, 1930s 1.17, 1940s 1.26, 1950s 1.00, 1960s 1.12, 1970s 1.19, 1980s 1.18, 1990s 1.48, 2000s 1.92, 2010s 1.52, 2020s 2.68. The 2020s run to 2026. 0.0 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.0 1920s1940s1960s1980s2000s2020s
Decade values in Kazakhstan: 1920s 0.80, 1930s 1.17, 1940s 1.26, 1950s 1.00, 1960s 1.12, 1970s 1.19, 1980s 1.18, 1990s 1.48, 2000s 1.92, 2010s 1.52, 2020s 2.68. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record highs, 1.13.
Observed over expected record highs by decade, Kazakhstan
Decaderecord highs observed over expected
1920s0.80
1930s1.17
1940s1.26
1950s1.00
1960s1.12
1970s1.19
1980s1.18
1990s1.48
2000s1.92
2010s1.52
2020s2.68

Record lows

Observed over expected record lows by decade, Kazakhstan Decade values in Kazakhstan: 1920s 1.31, 1930s 0.94, 1940s 0.81, 1950s 1.02, 1960s 0.98, 1970s 0.83, 1980s 0.56, 1990s 0.70, 2000s 0.59, 2010s 0.78, 2020s 0.54. The 2020s run to 2026. 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.5 1920s1940s1960s1980s2000s2020s
Decade values in Kazakhstan: 1920s 1.31, 1930s 0.94, 1940s 0.81, 1950s 1.02, 1960s 0.98, 1970s 0.83, 1980s 0.56, 1990s 0.70, 2000s 0.59, 2010s 0.78, 2020s 0.54. The 2020s run to 2026. Dashed line: the 1951-1980 level for record lows, 0.92.
Observed over expected record lows by decade, Kazakhstan
Decaderecord lows observed over expected
1920s1.31
1930s0.94
1940s0.81
1950s1.02
1960s0.98
1970s0.83
1980s0.56
1990s0.70
2000s0.59
2010s0.78
2020s0.54
Observed and expected daily temperature records by decade, Kazakhstan
DecadeHighs observedHighs expectedHighs observed over expectedLows observedLows expectedLows observed over expected
1920s79990.80129991.31
1930s4744051.173814050.94
1940s1,6721,3301.261,0821,3300.81
1950s2,3522,3631.002,4112,3631.02
1960s3,5903,2141.123,1353,2140.98
1970s4,4313,7091.193,0823,7090.83
1980s3,8123,2381.181,8223,2380.56
1990s4,8393,2761.482,3063,2760.70
2000s8,4434,3991.922,5914,3990.59
2010s6,7384,4191.523,4624,4190.78
2020s8,2953,0982.681,6863,0980.54

By Record Type, 2020s

Against the 1951-1980 level
Observed and expected records by type in the 2020s, Kazakhstan, with the 1951-1980 level
Record typeObservedExpectedObserved over expected1951-1980 level
Record high maximum temperature3,8041,8822.021.06
Record low maximum temperature1,0371,8820.550.95
Record high minimum temperature4,4911,2173.691.19
Record low minimum temperature6491,2170.530.89

The 2020s are not over: this decade runs to 2026, up to 2026-10-17.

Download the Data

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily). Records are computed by World Extreme Weather Monitor and are not official NOAA products. (US Government open data (NOAA NCEI)) Data as of 2026-10-17. Observed records are computed by this site from daily maximum and minimum temperature. Expected counts assume a stable climate.